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Every bear market cycle involves hype around quantum computers, claiming that $BTC will go to zero.
Some people are worried that Google's quantum technology might threaten Bitcoin. Let me put it this way: if quantum computing could actually crack the elliptic curve encryption behind Bitcoin, the entire world would have already been turned upside down. The total market cap of the entire encryption industry is less than three trillion dollars, and Bitcoin wouldn't even register.
Banking systems would be directly rendered obsolete.
Interbank transactions, credit card payments—these systems rely on modern encryption technology and would become useless. Attackers could easily forge data and transfer funds, leaving banks to be "given away for free."
Encryption technology in the financial system
Encryption methods used in finance, like RSA+, ECC+, are even more fragile than blockchain. If they were truly cracked by quantum computers, the global financial system would be as fragile as paper, and assets could vanish in an instant.
All communication would be exposed
HTTPS, SSL, VX, emails, banking websites—all online communications would become insecure. Who you're chatting with, what you're buying, how much money you make—all could be live-streamed.
National secrets would become a joke
Even nuclear launch codes wouldn't be safe; nuclear weapon passwords could be easily cracked. Just imagine how terrifying that is.
If Google's quantum computing truly reaches this level, you shouldn't worry about Bitcoin becoming worthless. Instead, you should be concerned that the fundamental logic of the entire world could be redefined, with rules completely rewritten.
Most likely, the first thing each country would do is eliminate Google—arrest all top executives.
These miners who temporarily switch their mining power to run AI $BTC are no different from retail investors at the bottom of $BTC who cut losses and take over gold and silver.
They are all chasing short-term gains and selling off at the slightest dip, with no independent judgment. Is the US’s shortage of computing power due to a lack of mining machines? No, it’s an energy issue. Nvidia’s new graphics cards are about to double their computing power again.
Mining machines are not the bottleneck; the generators at mining farms are what AI giants are eyeing. It’s well known that tokens in the US are expensive; spending 1 kWh on tokens can earn you the equivalent of 10 kWh. But tokens won’t stay expensive forever. Don’t you envy Minimax leading the total token consumption? The competitors across the Pacific are pricing at only 1/15 of that, and OpenAI and others will eventually have to adjust their prices.
So, the huge profit of earning 10 kWh from 1 kWh of electricity is just a trap, like mining in DeFi. Once all suppliers are in place and have invested heavily upfront to build generators and data centers, they will definitely go crazy with price cuts later.
The outcome might even be running tokens at a loss. You have to run them; otherwise, the depreciation of idle equipment just becomes zero, and running at a loss might still recover some of the initial costs.