$ETH 4-Hour Short-Term Trading Strategy (2026.04.01)

I. Current Market Analysis

The current ETH/USDT perpetual contract price is 2110.11 USDT. The key technical features on the 4-hour chart are:

1. Bollinger Bands (BOLL): Price has strongly risen along the upper band and then slightly pulled back. The current price is between the middle band (2045.04) and the upper band (2123.21). The Bollinger Bands are expanding upward overall, indicating a clear medium-term bullish trend. The upper band acts as a short-term strong resistance, and the middle band serves as a core support.
2. MACD Indicator: DIF (13.63) and DEA (2.76) are both above zero. The MACD histogram is positive and continues to expand, showing strong bullish momentum. However, there are signs of slight shrinking in the histogram, warning of potential short-term pullback risk.
3. KDJ Indicator: K (78.68), D (73.10), J (89.83) are all in the overbought zone (J approaching 90). A short-term technical correction may be needed, and bullish momentum shows signs of weakening.
4. Price Structure: The rebound started from a low of 1936.54, forming a clear upward trendline. The current price has tested and stabilized after pulling back to the trendline, and the overall bullish structure remains intact.
5. Intraday Data: The highest price in 24 hours was 2124.51, the lowest was 2011.25, with a 2.76% increase intraday. Trading volume is active, and market attention is high.

II. Core Trading Parameters (Can be directly copied)

(1) Long Position Strategy (Follow the trend)

1. Entry Conditions:
- Aggressive Long: Price stabilizes after pulling back to the 2090-2100 zone, KDJ retraces near 70, and MACD histogram shows no significant shrinking;
- Conservative Long: Price pulls back to the Bollinger middle band (2045-2055), stabilizes at trendline support, and KDJ drops to 50-60.
2. Take Profit Targets:
- First Take Profit: 2120-2125 (near the upper Bollinger band resistance and previous intraday high), reduce 50% of position upon reaching;
- Second Take Profit: 2150-2160 (bullish extension after breaking previous high);
- Ultimate Take Profit: 2200 (strong resistance and final target for trend continuation).
3. Stop Loss Settings:
- Aggressive Long: 2070 (below the lower boundary of entry zone + trendline support, approximately 1.9% stop loss);
- Conservative Long: 2020 (below Bollinger middle band + recent low, approximately 1.7% stop loss).
4. Position Management: Do not exceed 15% of total capital per position, enter in 2 batches to avoid chasing highs.

(2) Short Position Strategy (Overbought rebound/correction only for short-term)

1. Entry Conditions:
- Price surges to 2120-2125 zone (upper Bollinger band + previous intraday high), KDJ overbought signals weaken, MACD histogram shrinks and turns;
- If price breaks above 2125 but quickly falls back, forming a bearish divergence, try a light short in the 2130-2135 range.
2. Take Profit Targets:
- First Take Profit: 2090-2100 (short-term support), reduce 70% upon reaching;
- Second Take Profit: 2060-2070 (near Bollinger middle band), exit all positions.
3. Stop Loss Settings: 2145 (break above previous high + resistance), approximately 1% stop loss, strict small stop to avoid being caught in adverse moves.
4. Position Management: Do not exceed 10% of total capital per position, only for short-term corrections, avoid holding overnight.

III. Key Support/Resistance Levels (Can be directly copied)

- Strong Resistance: 2125, 2150, 2200
- Strong Support: 2100, 2045, 2011
- Trend Lifeline: 2000 (break below indicates end of bullish trend and shift to bearish)

IV. Trading Discipline and Risk Control (Must Read)

1. Strictly implement stop loss; maximum loss per trade should not exceed 2% of total capital. No holding through losses.
2. Follow the trend; prioritize long positions. Short positions are only for short-term corrections, avoid heavy contrarian bets.
3. If price breaks above 2125 and stabilizes, abandon short positions and add to long positions; if price falls below 2045 with increased volume, abandon longs and wait.
4. Avoid heavy trading before major news releases (such as Federal Reserve decisions, Ethereum upgrades) to prevent volatility risks.
5. Move stop loss to breakeven or better after profits are realized to protect gains. Do not be greedy; lock in profits timely.

V. Market Evolution and Response

- If price stabilizes above 2125, bullish continuation is expected, hold longs targeting 2150-2200, and close all short positions;
- If price breaks below 2045, bullish trend weakens, close all longs, and wait for the next opportunity;
- If price fluctuates between 2090-2125, perform high sell and low buy within the range, strictly follow the range, and avoid chasing.