Analysis: The Bitcoin "Safe Haven Myth" Fails Amid US-Iran Conflict, ETF Capital Reshapes Pricing Logic

Odaily · 2026-04-01T02:16:44+00:00

10x Research points out that under the current US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has failed to demonstrate its safe-haven asset characteristics and has instead declined in tandem with other risk assets. New investors focus on macro variables, while some retail investors still rely on outdated narratives. The market generally misreads Bitcoin and overlooks key macro factors.

Odaily

2026-04-01 02:16:44

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Odaily Planet Daily reports that 10x Research posted on the X platform saying that, amid the current backdrop of the Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has not shown “inflation-hedging” or “safe-haven asset” characteristics. Instead, it has fallen in sync with other risk assets, indicating that its price-driven logic is changing. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has brought a batch of new investors to the market; most of them come from Wall Street and are more focused on macro variables than on on-chain applications or network growth indicators, but not all “macro” indicators apply to Bitcoin. Some retail investors still rely on the narrative of a “four-year cycle,” or even one extended to a “five-year cycle,” causing them to keep going long during downturns. The market commonly misreads Bitcoin, treating it as a safe-haven asset and overly relying on liquidity models that have failed, while ignoring the key macro factors that truly drive the cycle.

BTC2,6%

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