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I just saw the U.S. non-farm payroll data for February, and it's quite interesting. The market was expecting an increase of 59,000 jobs, but instead, there was a decline of 92,000. This is the first negative growth since October last year, and the previous months' figures have also been revised downward, from 130,000 to 126,000.
Even more concerning is the unemployment rate. While U.S. non-farm employment data is weak, the unemployment rate has also risen to 4.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 4.3%, reaching a new high since December last year. This sudden weakening in the labor market indicates that the economy is indeed cooling down.
Interestingly, such data often bring a particular market logic—fears of recession boost risk-averse sentiment, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates earlier. If U.S. non-farm employment continues to weaken, the dollar will come under pressure, which could be a positive for Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
The question now is whether this is a sign of an impending recession or a signal that the Federal Reserve is about to ease policy. This turn in the U.S. non-farm data could become an important reference point for the market moving forward. Of course, we need to see subsequent trends to confirm the single-month data, but this signal is definitely worth paying attention to.