Institutions: A balanced defense and rebound strategy in the securities industry

CITIC Construction Investment believes that triple-margin changes are trending favorably, and that the securities sector’s 2026 performance exceeding expectations is worth expecting. 1）In the first half, the trend of a substantial year-over-year increase in trading activity has been established, and full-year growth may exceed expectations. 2）Early-year new account opening data was impressive, and incremental retail investor capital is building momentum, ready to deploy. 3）Broker-dealer bond issuance and financing volumes have expanded significantly at the margin, which is expected to drive leverage improvement and break through the industry’s ROE peak.

Galaxy Securities believes that in 2026, the securities industry will continue to show the core trends of steady growth, optimized structure, and reshaping of the competitive landscape. Favorable factors across multiple dimensions—such as the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy environment, ongoing improvements in the capital markets environment, and the rebuilding of investor confidence—collectively drive an upward move in the industry’s business sentiment. Under the current environment, medium- and long-term funds are accelerating into the market, market activity remains at a high level, and the capital markets’ continuation of a “healthy bull” trend has a relatively high degree of certainty. In addition, wealth management transformation, expansion of international business, and enabling financial technology are expected to become drivers for the industry to improve ROE. The current sector valuation is at a historical low, with both defense and rebound capabilities.