BTC Recovery Lacks Strength Amid Iran Conflict Risks

Bitcoin is trading around $66,300 on Tuesday, showing a slight recovery after bouncing off a key support level. This movement is supported by moderate institutional buying, but overall momentum feels weak and uncertain.

The bigger concern remains the macroeconomic risks.

Reports about Donald Trump suggest the US might soon resolve its conflict with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t fully reopened. While this sounds like a positive sign, the markets remain skeptical. Oil prices are still high, with WTI briefly reaching $103, which keeps inflation worries alive.

This matters because higher inflation can lead to tighter monetary policy, which usually puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

On the institutional side, demand is improving a bit but still not strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $69 million in inflows after recent outflows, indicating some interest but no clear conviction. Large investors remain cautious.

Data from the blockchain and derivatives markets also show this hesitation. Glassnode reports the market is shifting from selling to a more neutral stance. Futures open interest is rising, and funding rates are slightly positive, showing traders lean long but without strong enthusiasm.

From a technical viewpoint, the picture remains weak.

Bitcoin has been in a broader downtrend since February. The current bounce looks like a rising wedge, which usually signals bearishness. The price is hovering near the $66,000 support level.

Key levels to watch:

Resistance: $67,700 to $69,100, then $71,000

Support: $66,000, then $62,000

If Bitcoin falls below $66,000, it could quickly drop to $62,000.

If it breaks above $69,000 and stays there, that would be the first sign of real strength, potentially opening the way to $71,000.

At the moment, this isn’t a confirmed trend reversal—just a weak bounce inside a larger downtrend, marked by low volume and limited conviction.

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