Today, the price of U.S. crude oil finally surged past $100. Although it reached a high of $117 on March 9, it fell back within a few hours. Currently, the market not only does not expect a decline but also believes that oil prices could break through $150, or even higher. This clearly indicates that there is not much optimism about a short-term end to the war.

Today, Powell attended an event and delivered a speech, expressing concerns similar to those after the rate hike meeting. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma; currently, the U.S. faces both downside risks in the labor market and upside risks from inflation. This shows that the Fed is very cautious about adjusting interest rates. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates at most once by 2026.

Regarding U.S. debt, Powell believes that the total debt level has not yet reached an unsustainable point, but its current trajectory is unsustainable. Although this is not the Fed’s responsibility, if not addressed promptly, the outcome could be unfavorable. He also expressed concern about private credit, noting that private credit is just a relatively small part of a very large asset pool, but the Fed is still paying attention.

Looking at BTC data, despite the continuation of the war and the ongoing rise in oil prices, short-term investor sentiment continues to decline. Consequently, BTC’s price is also continuing to fall. Iran’s war is currently the biggest obstacle for BTC, but even after the war ends, many other obstacles remain—most of which originate from Trump.