Sudden collective surge! New updates on the Iran situation! Morgan Stanley comments: the pullback is nearing its end

Afternoon—risk appetite in the market is rebounding!

On March 30 afternoon Beijing time, U.S. stock index futures continued to climb. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.51% after having fallen by more than 1% earlier. Major European equity indexes also opened lower and then moved higher. France’s CAC40, Germany’s DAX30, and Europe’s STOXX 50 all turned positive. The crypto market also rebounded sharply in a “deep V.” As of the time of writing, Ethereum was up nearly 3%, while Bitcoin was up 1.66%.

Earlier, U.S. President Trump said that indirect talks between the United States and Iran conducted via a “go-between,” Pakistan, were “going smoothly.” He also said that Iran had allowed 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, when asked whether a ceasefire agreement could be reached in the coming days and whether the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, Trump did not disclose specific details.

Market analysts said Trump’s latest remarks, to a certain extent, eased concerns about a potential disruption of Middle East oil supplies.

According to the latest information, Spain announced that it would close its airspace to military aircraft involved in the U.S.-Iran conflict. In addition, on March 30, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed that its naval commander had died.

Also, Reuters reported on March 30 that Iran’s military issued a statement saying its drones attacked U.S. military positions and radar sites located in the UAE from the night of the 29th to the early hours of the 30th.

Broad-based rebound

This afternoon, U.S. stock index futures for all three major benchmarks continued to rebound. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were up 0.49%, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.51%, and S&P 500 index futures were up 0.53%. Earlier this morning, however, Nasdaq 100 futures had at one point fallen by more than 1%, while Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 index futures had at one point risen by more than 0.8%.

European equities also surged across the board. As of the time of writing, Germany’s DAX30 was up 0.16%, France’s CAC40 rose 0.37%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 0.82%, and Europe’s STOXX 50 was up 0.38%.

The crypto market rebounded sharply. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.66%, Ethereum up nearly 3%, Solana up more than 2%, and XRP up 1.75%. Earlier, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana had all fallen by more than 2% at one point. U.S. listed crypto-related stocks were higher pre-market, with BMNR up nearly 4%, CleanSpark up more than 3%, and Coinbase and MicroStrategy Investment up more than 2%.

Morgan Stanley’s strategists said that the pullback in the S&P 500 triggered by the Iran war is nearing the end. In a report, the strategists wrote that the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen by 17%; among Russell 3000 constituents, more than half of the stocks have seen drawdowns of over 20%.

Morgan Stanley’s strategists said, “The market has already priced in expectations for higher oil prices. We still believe there are signs that the pullback is closer to ending rather than beginning.”

However, rising bond yields pose a risk. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is approaching 4.5%, and historically this level has created pressure on equity valuations.

Maersk posted an announcement on its website updating details on the drone attacks over the weekend. Maersk said that the area affected at the Port of Salalah (Port of Salalah) was “limited.”

Maersk said it does not expect the situation to “seriously impede port operations or throughput capacity.” Port operations are still suspended and are expected to remain suspended for up to an additional 48 hours; the exact timing will depend on instructions from the port authorities.

Maersk said that vessels currently en route to the Port of Salalah will continue to call at the port, but operational delays are expected. The company said all crew are safe, and that none of Maersk’s vessels or cargo have been affected.

Latest developments on the Iran situation

According to CCTV News, on March 30 local time, the Spanish government announced that, effective immediately, it would close its airspace to all military aircraft and related support aircraft participating in the U.S.-Iran war. The decision was released after an emergency cabinet meeting led by Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez.

According to an announcement released by Spain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the scope of this airspace closure covers all foreign military crews carrying out bombing, reconnaissance, aerial refueling, and transporting war material missions. The Spanish government emphasized that this move is based on considerations of upholding international law, avoiding escalation of the conflict, and safeguarding national security.

Also, Xinhua News Agency reported that on March 30, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement to mourn the death of the IRGC Navy commander, Ali Reza Tanksyri.

The statement said Tanksyri died due to injuries, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will “never stop fighting until the enemy is completely eliminated.”

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement dated the 26th that Israel carried out an airstrike on the port of Abbas in southern Iran, and that multiple senior IRGC Navy figures, including Tanksyri, were killed.

On March 30 early morning, Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy said that a power and seawater desalination facility in the country suffered severe damage in an attack on the night of the 29th, and that an Indian national staff member died.

The ministry’s spokesperson, Fatima Hayat, said in a statement on social media that one building of a power and seawater desalination facility was hit by an attack “from Iran” on the night of the 29th. The attack caused the death of an Indian national staff member and severely damaged the building.

The statement also said that the security and stability of the power and water systems are crucial. All technical teams are operating efficiently around the clock to prevent unexpected incidents and ensure that essential services continue running.

Earlier, on the night of the 29th, Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy said in a statement that across Kuwait, seven overhead transmission lines in multiple areas had been damaged in recent days due to falling shrapnel; four of them have been repaired and resumed operation. On the night of the 29th, Kuwait’s military said that a military base had been hit by multiple missile attacks, injuring 10 service members.

（Source: Broker China）