"Three Oil Giants" earned over 310 billion yuan last year; dividend payouts are expected to exceed 160 billion yuan

After China National Petroleum Corp. (601857) disclosed its annual report on the evening of March 29, the full 2025 performance results for the “Big Three” oil companies were all released. In 2025, the “Big Three” recorded attributable net profits of RMB 311.193 billion, and are expected to deliver cumulative dividends of RMB 165.176 billion.

Diverging performance trends

In 2025, affected by the decline in international oil prices, the “Big Three” saw their performance fall to varying degrees and showed a further trend of divergence.

In 2025, China National Petroleum Corp. achieved full-year operating revenue of RMB 2.86 trillion, down 2.5% year over year; attributable net profit of RMB 157.302 billion, down 4.48% year over year; daily net earnings of about RMB 4.3 billion. Among the “Big Three,” China National Petroleum Corp. has a balanced layout across the entire industry chain. With upstream exploration and production and downstream refining and sales operating in coordination, its performance has been the most stable.

China National Petroleum Corp. said that, in response to the new situation, it will continue to drive efforts to increase oil and gas reserves and production as well as upgrade its refining and petrochemical transformation, laying a solid foundation for the company’s development. It will also actively promote a green and low-carbon transition, develop new-quality productive forces in a manner suited to local conditions, support the high-quality and efficient development of emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and focus on building new business growth points.

In 2025, Sinopec recorded operating revenue of RMB 2.78 trillion, down 9.46% year over year; attributable net profit of RMB 31.809 billion, down 36.78% year over year, with four consecutive years of declines. Sinopec has a higher proportion of downstream refining business, and was hit hardest by oversupply in chemical production capacity and weak demand, which compressed gross margins.

CNOOC’s operating revenue last year was RMB 398.2 billion, down 5.3% year over year; attributable net profit was RMB 122.082 billion, down 11.49% year over year. CNOOC’s business is mainly oil and gas exploration and development. Its full-year net oil and gas production volume was 777 million barrels, up 7% year over year, reaching a new high.

Cash dividends exceed RMB 160 billion

Although the “Big Three” saw declines to varying degrees in performance, they still maintained a large-scale dividend payout. The total cash dividends were RMB 165.176 billion, rewarding investors.

Of this amount, including an interim dividend, China National Petroleum Corp. declared a full-year dividend of RMB 0.47 per share (tax included). The total dividend payout reached RMB 86.02 billion, with a payout ratio of 54.7%. Over the past three years, cumulative dividends totaled RMB 252.569 billion.

Sinopec’s full-year dividend in 2025 was RMB 0.20 per share (tax included). The total dividend was RMB 24.206 billion. The total amount of share buybacks and cancellations for the year was RMB 1.554 billion. After including the buybacks, the cash dividend payout ratio was 81%, and the dividend payout ratio is the highest among the “Big Three.”

For CNOOC, its full-year dividend in 2025 was HKD 1.28 per share (tax included). The total dividend was HKD 60.8 billion (about RMB 54.95 billion), and the dividend payout ratio was 45%.

Institutions raise target prices

Since 2026, international oil prices have returned to above USD 100 per barrel, driving up the share prices of the “Big Three.”

Due to factors such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have surged sharply within the past month. The market expects that higher oil prices will strengthen the future divergence in which upstream performance benefits while downstream faces pressure.

Driven by strong oil prices, multiple major international banks have raised their earnings forecasts and target prices for the “Big Three.”

A Goldman Sachs research note pointed out that over the past three years, CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corp. have demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, and their ranking in global peers in terms of cash returns on invested capital has improved. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for CNOOC’s Hong Kong-listed shares to HKD 31 and raised its target price for China National Petroleum Corp.’s A-shares to RMB 15.3, and its Hong Kong-listed target price to HKD 11.5.

JPMorgan analysts said that more than 70% of CNOOC’s production is crude oil, making it the most sensitive to changes in oil prices. Therefore, they raised their earnings per share forecasts for CNOOC in 2026 and 2027 by 41% and 19%, respectively, and increased its H-share and A-share target prices to HKD 31 and RMB 47, respectively.

UBS has also recently raised its earnings forecasts for the “Big Three” this year. It raised its 2026 earnings forecasts for China National Petroleum Corp., CNOOC, and Sinopec by 13%, 16%, and 0.4%, respectively.