[Vote] 3.30 Review: Power decline, waiting for the next spring breeze

Not hunt for off-chart logic—only seek on-chart signals. Focus at the window; push to the extreme at the nodes; and stay unwavering with the strong.[Taoguba]

Every day before the market opens, these three soul questions must be carved into your brain:

1. Is there a main theme right now?

2. Is today a key turning point?

3. Is today a buy point?

Recently, what everyone wants me to share—the real-world “know-how”—I roughly categorized it. I personally lean toward talking about “the Way,” for instance, why you can’t truly “悟道” (comprehend the Way). That is the core of my system, as well as the underlying logic. Everything we trade begins there. Vote according to your own needs.

Today’s market action: the one question that truly determines whether your understanding is higher or lower is:

Are the next two days an opening (new position) node?

Over the weekend—two days—the message front was all drums and gongs. Power-related positives burst across major headlines like fireworks. Some say this is the policy floor; some say it’s a fundamental turning point; some dig up research reports from three months ago; some screenshot last week’s 龙虎榜. Those who made money in power are rubbing their hands, ready to add another round; those who missed the move are pounding their chests, wishing the market opens on Monday and they can rush in. It’s as if Monday’s open is already a guaranteed red on the board.

But fireworks cool quickly; prosperity is easy to scatter.

This morning at 9:30, the moment the numbers at the call auction popped out, those who were rubbing their hands over the weekend were likely to be disappointed. 426 stocks up, 4594 down. This isn’t a broad selloff—this is a broad disaster. If you stand in front of the order book at 9:30 and close your eyes to feel it, what kind of silence is that? It’s the silence of capital collectively going mute; it’s the silence of the main forces quietly retreating; it’s the silence of countless retail traders still staring at individual stocks, blissfully unaware.

If you ask me, with so many positives over the weekend, why is it falling like this today?

I can only say: news is wind—it passes without a trace; the market is a mountain—it stands unmoved. Wind can make you feel cool for a moment, but the mountain is where you anchor your life.

Through the weekend’s two days of digestion, and today’s end-of-session “power” saga in the intraday market, everyone has accumulated a lot of questions. Most of those questions I’ve answered—for example, someone kept asking why I didn’t write “new energy” (“新能”) into the post-weekend recap, or whether “Ningbo” (“宁波”) will become a follow-on surge. If you look carefully, you can actually find the answers in the recap article from last Friday.

If you want to understand how the power theme started to move, you can start by reading the recap article on the 18th—it has continuity. From “Yuneng” (“豫能”) to “Huayin” (“华银”) to “Shunna” (“顺那”) to “Huadian” (“华电”) to “Lianeng” (“辽能”), and then to last Friday’s “Guangxi” (“广西”) and “Jinkong” (“晋控”). This one-and-a-half-month thread—if you’ve seriously read it once, you won’t still be asking today’s question like “why did it fall?”

Today’s recap, combining everyone’s questions and today’s market action, is an in-depth recap with substance.

That opening line—“Not hunt for off-chart logic—only seek on-chart signals”—is not something for you to just look at. It is your behavioral guideline, framing how you use this mindset and take action in this market. Otherwise, getting hit and staying poor is the norm.

Enough talk. The recap starts now for today.

First do a deep recap; then I’ll talk about my trading.

I. Off-Chart Logic: News is wind—it passes without a trace

Over the weekend, every piece of news about power was positive. If you open any APP, the screen is filled with commentary interpreting power’s positives.

First: the domestic electricity market trading activity is active and continues to grow, while grid investment strength keeps increasing. State Grid released the latest data over the weekend: in the first quarter, grid investment grew year-over-year by more than 15%, the highest in nearly five years. The scale of market-based electricity trading is also expanding continuously—green power trading volume has doubled. These are pure positives. From a fundamentals perspective, the profitability of power companies is improving, and the valuation framework is being re-priced.

Second: international developments spark energy concerns. The conflict in the Middle East keeps escalating; oil tankers in the Persian Gulf have to detour; the Red Sea routes are no longer safe. “Little Japan” (“小日子”) begins lining up for fuel; the Philippines’ energy minister makes an emergency trip; and countries across Asia-Pacific are all anxious about energy security. If Middle East oil can’t get out, global attention naturally shifts to new energy. And China’s new energy industrial chain—especially power—is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary. This, too, is pure positive. From a sentiment perspective, the logic of energy substitution is as solid as a rock.

Two sets of positives: one is fundamentals, the other is sentiment. No matter how you look at it, it should be an ironclad uptrend. So what happened?

Today, the power sector had the biggest drop in the whole market, the most stocks that hit the limit-down, and it was truly heartbreaking. Intraday, the sector index once fell more than 4%; multiple individual stocks lay flat at the limit-down board. Those who were excited over positive news on the weekend probably can’t smile today.

Now look at the individual stocks’ news flow. Over the weekend, for the two core “seed” candidates—“Jinkong” (“晋控”) and “Guangxi” (“广西”)—the biggest news was earnings. “Jinkong” released an earnings forecast: profits surged significantly. The brokers stayed up all night to issue research reports, with headlines like “Earnings exceeded expectations; there’s room for valuation repair.” “Guangxi,” on the other hand, wasn’t so good: earnings missed expectations. Some people started worrying whether it might get “nuked” (“被核”).

So what happened?

“Jinkong” opened deep in the red at -2.36% and didn’t even manage to flip green, then it just dropped straight onto the lower limit board. The positives fell; the negatives—actually opened above water.

Is this the power of news? No—this is the power of the market.

That’s why I never look at news. For trading, don’t say I don’t believe in news—I don’t even believe myself when it comes to news. I only trust my own eyes. Looking at mountains is looking at mountains—that is my realm.

You can go back and flip through every one of my previous recap articles: when did I ever buy because of news? Never. When did I ever sell because of news? Also never. Because I know: in front of the market, news is worth nothing. When the market is up, news will naturally be interpreted as a positive; when the market is down, news will naturally be interpreted as a negative. The “news” you see is what others want you to see; the “market action” you see is what the market is truly doing.

II. Intraday Signals: When signals come, a thousand armies and ten thousand horses

The key is here: intraday signals can stand against a thousand armies and ten thousand horses.

1. Call auction: Dual warnings for the overall market and the sector

First, the overall market.

At 9:15, the first batch of call-auction prints came out: 426 stocks up, 4594 down. This data alone is enough to explain everything.

What did I say in the article the night before the other day? I said: the outside chatter is ominous—be more cautious, less complacent. The U.S. stock market’s crash, the Middle East conflict, and turbulence in Asia-Pacific are not things to treat casually. I reminded everyone not to relax just because the weekend had positives; not to keep fantasizing just because you still have positions. When I said that, how many people truly took it in?

Of course, people treat such words as background noise, and their inner world and gaze still lock onto individual stocks.

What is a big-picture view? This is exactly what you lack in that regard.

You watch individual stocks; I watch the atmosphere. Individual stocks are leaves; the atmosphere is the forest. You only see one leaf fall, I see the whole forest shaking. You worry about whether “Jinkong’s” opening price is -2.36% or +2.36%; what I see is that there are only 426 up stocks. You’re still纠结 whether “Guangxi” can flip green; what I see is that the sector is down the most in the entire market.

Next, look at the sector index.

At 9:25, when the call auction ends, the virtual power plant (“虚拟电厂”) is down the most in the whole market—#1—with a drop of -3.75%. What does it mean for a sector that was full of positives over the weekend to open by falling nearly 4% straight out of the gate? It means capital is using its feet to vote; it means the positives have already been digested in advance; it means someone is taking advantage of the positives to unload (“出货”).

Someone said the power plants in the Persian Gulf were bombed, and the positives are for us—doesn’t that sound a bit ironic? Positives have been exhausted—then negatives arrive. This line has been repeated countless times in the stock market, but every time, someone doesn’t believe it. Why? Because human nature is like that: we only want to believe what we want to believe. If you have positions, you want to see positives; if you don’t have positions, you want to see negatives. But the true trader has no positions—only signals.

2. Individual-stock signals: Answers to three scripts

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Now returning to the recap article from last Friday. That day we proposed three scripts and used an entire section to simulate the three possible outcomes for Monday. Today, let’s see which script it is:

First, “Jinkong.” Last Friday, its turnover (“换手”) on the bid board was the turnover core within the “follow-on surge ladder.” For a stock with sufficient turnover, what’s the normal next-day expectation? A weak-to-strong (trend reversal upward), a high open, and a premium. Today it opened at -2.36%, severely under expectations. A turnover-strong stock that can’t even hold a red board the next day—that’s “weak.” Not just average weak—very weak.

Next, “Guangxi.” Last Friday it held up against divergences; it was the strongest vanguard in the follow-on surge ladder. For a stock that holds against divergences, what’s the normal expectation the next day? Acceleration, a one-word limit-up (“一字”), and you can’t buy it. Today it also opened under expectations. Although it wasn’t as deep as “Jinkong,” it still can’t be called strong.

Since both of them were under expectations, then today is weak—corresponding to script C: no position, waiting for the next node.

In last Friday’s article, I wrote: “If both are weak, the follow-on surge fails. Then go flat, and wait for the next node when the bell rings. Trading isn’t something you have to do every day—being flat is also a strategy, and often the best one.” Today is the day when “both are weak.” Script C plays out on schedule.

3. Three key indicators: All of them light up red

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Now back to the three observation indicators we set last Friday. I spent a long time summarizing these three—they’re more useful than any technical indicator because they directly hit the essence of sentiment.

First is the repair strength of the old dragon. “Lianeng” (“辽能”) hit the limit-down in the call auction, then opened at -5.9%. Not only did it not repair—its sentiment worsened instead. The dragon lost its dignity—just imagine the temperature of this cycle. “Lianeng” is the overall “power” cycle’s main dragon; the eight-board height is what it achieved. Its走势 (trajectory) determines the cycle’s temperature. After it broke the board, there was no repair—on the contrary, it kept selling off. That’s the confirmation signal that the cycle is ebbing.

Second is the promotion/advancement rate of the turnover board. No need to over-explain it: “Jinkong” opened deep in the red. The turnover-board promotion rate is the thermometer for relay sentiment. If the thermometer has dropped to an ice point, what are you still expecting? Last Friday, the turnover boards still had Jinkong and a few followers that were turning red. Today—how many are flipping red? How many are advancing? None. Not a single one.

Third is the spread of negative feedback. “Shunna” (“顺那”) also opened below the waterline. It has been weakening for several days already. Since last Thursday, it was weakening; last Friday it was still weak; today it’s still weak. Negative feedback spread from one stock to another, from the old core to the new follow-on surge—this is a signal of ebbing. And the spread is still continuing; today is the worst-hit zone for limit-down.

Three indicators—every one of them lights up red. What was the advice in our Friday article?

“If both are weak, then go flat and wait for the next node’s bell to ring.”

Seeing this, I already had a clear plan for what to do today: stay flat.

Not because I’m timid, but because my model tells me: no main theme, no node, no buy point. Three soul questions—none of them can be answered. Then what are we trading for?

III. Today’s actions: Exit positions, go flat, and have tea

At 9:24:58, in the last second of the call auction, I exited “Jinkong.”

Why 9:24:58? Because the last two minutes of the call auction is the true battleground time. Before 9:20, you can cancel orders—that’s still fake. After 9:20, you can only place orders, not cancel—that’s the real money and real silver. At 9:24:58, in the very last second, all signals were already clear: 426 stocks up on the broad market; the sector down -3.75%; “Lianeng” opened at -5.9%; “Jinkong” opened at -2.36%; “Shunna” opened below the waterline. All three indicators were red. No need to wait any longer.

The instant I pressed the sell button, I glanced at the account—“Jinkong” still had a “chicken leg” (“鸡腿”) portion of gains.

This trade, from the trial on Friday to today’s exit, was entirely within the boundaries of my model. Trial correct—make money; trial wrong—small loss. No tug-of-war, no internal fighting, no fantasies. That is the power of the model.

After exiting, I came to the lakeside, had tea and chatted with a friend. The wind blew over, and ripples spread across the water—so much like the movement of the candlestick chart. But I know those fluctuations have nothing to do with me. Every day this market has limit-ups and limit-downs. But truly your opportunities—only a handful times a month. The rest of the time, it’s all waiting.

Going flat isn’t giving up—it’s waiting. Waiting for the next window to open, waiting for the next node to arrive, waiting for the next signal to light up. In the world of trading, being flat is also an offensive stance: you’re attacking with patience, attacking with discipline, attacking with faith in your own model.

Those still fighting for their lives in power today, those trying to switch today, and those still asking whether “Ningbo” can catch up and surge—have you ever thought: why must you trade? Why can’t you just go flat? Why can’t you wait a bit? Is it because you fear missing out? Is it because you fear being wrong?

But with this market action today, what is actually worth missing out on? What’s actually worth regretting?

IV. Tomorrow’s scenario simulation: Waiting is the highest state

Today, the power sector is fully ebbing—down the most in the whole market, with the most limit-down stocks. A main theme of one and a half months, from “Yuneng” sparking to “Huayin” starting up, to “Shunna” breaking the situation, to “Huadian” taking the baton, to “Lianeng” sealing the glory, and then to last Friday’s “Guangxi” and “Jinkong” as follow-on surges—that road has been completed.

Like a grand flowering season: after the most dazzling moment, petals begin to fall one by one.

For tomorrow’s scenario simulation, there are only three words: wait.

1. There’s an expectation of sector “reflux,” but it’s not for participation

After continuous sharp declines, technically power can have a rebound/rotation and repair. That’s common sense. If it falls a lot it rises; if it rises a lot it falls—these are market rules. But this kind of repair is a selling point, not a buying point.

Why? Because during an ebbing period, “repairs” are an escape route for holders—not an entry opportunity for flat positions. Here you can’t confirm whether it’s a true reversal or just a dead-cat bounce. Because my model tells me: before the main theme is confirmed, all rebounds are fake-outs (trap bounces).

If you have positions, a rise into strength is your exit (exit/exit). If you have no positions, don’t try to bottom-fish. The bottom is something you see emerge—it isn’t something you guess.

2. If power continues to drop, keep waiting

If tomorrow power continues falling, then it’s simple: stay flat, keep waiting. Don’t try to find opportunities during an ebbing period—the only opportunity in an ebbing period is not getting fooled.

Someone might ask: what if power surges tomorrow? What if “Guangxi” reverses and snaps back with a limit-up? What if “Jinkong” goes from weak to strong? What if, and what if… There is no “what if” in trading—only signals.

When the signal comes, I move; when the signal doesn’t come, I don’t move. I don’t know whether there will be signals tomorrow. I only know that when there are no signals, the best strategy is to wait.

3. New directions: only observe, don’t participate

If a new direction shows unusual movement during the day, like big technology, new energy, commercial space, etc., what should you do? Only observe, don’t participate.

Why? Because whether a new direction can build lasting momentum needs time to verify. A one-day hotspot might just be a pulse from speculators. A two-day hotspot might be capital’s probing. A three-day hotspot is worth your serious consideration. Before it becomes the main theme, all pulses are noise.

Outside the window, it’s all noise; within the node, that’s where the truth shows. Only by enduring loneliness can you wait for prosperity to arrive.

Power is ebbing—where is the next main theme? I don’t know. But I do know it will definitely quietly sprout on some unnoticed early morning. Just like spring won’t come to a halt because of one cold snap in early spring; the main theme won’t be permanently dormant because of one ebb. When it grows into a towering tree, I’ll naturally see it.

Right now, I’m only doing one thing: waiting.

V. Final words

When signals appear, we pull the trigger. When signals disappear, we stay silent as before. In such a loop—this is a lifetime in trading.

Someone asks me: why are you always flat before big drops? Is there some insider information? Do you know some main force? I just smile and don’t answer. In truth, there isn’t any insider story. It’s just that you can read the signals. The market writes the answers right there on the board—most people just don’t notice. They stare at individual stocks; I stare at the atmosphere. They stare at positives; I stare at signals. They stare at the past; I stare at what’s happening now.

This week, power is over. A main theme of one and a half months—from “Yuneng” to “Lianeng,” from spring to late spring—should rest now. But the market won’t rest. The new main theme will quietly sprout in some corner, and the next window will quietly open in some early morning. On the day the signal lights up, I will come back and pull the trigger.

If you have questions, you can leave them in the comments section. If I have time, I’ll reply. Or we can chat more in the evening.

In these decades of human life, how many springs and autumns has the stock market seen? Doing this grind and struggle, if you can meet a few brothers with the same frequency, this martial-arts world doesn’t feel that lonely. Thank you for the tips; grateful for the companionship.

Now in Taoxian (“淘县”), there aren’t many people who are willing to lay their sincerity out openly, and even fewer who are willing to stop and listen. If you feel my sharing is worth a look, you might as well tap follow—we’ll recognize each other’s faces in this vast sea of people.

Here, I’d like to thank @思拓魔 @上善若水2017 @大阳6666 @小资金有大梦想 @山泉水富春山 @潇潇86 @轩雨夜 @股学社 @让梦想起飞 @男二板 @炒股的味道 @云门心情 @逻辑数字 @冬眠16 @一明二 @ybzyhybzyh @儒生有福 @赵铁柱弟弟 @qjh快乐到家 @老生闯江湖 @上善若水lb @独醉街头王越 @风轻云在 @漫步山巅 @沙泥 @书里迷了路 @T轩炒股 @桑德瑞 @飞飞飞大 @永远的阿福 @追涨杀Dad @A深宝 @封涨停板 @村尾山人 @小五退伍炒股 @zcgang @努力吧我 @豆椒鱼头 @六脉神剑股份 @第三纬度 @塞克卡玛 @打板小哥哥 @最爱牛肉粉 @大道顺势 @八东八西 @股市大笨牛 @香樟王 @木已成舟18 @还是会想你 @正奇55555 @果壳里的世界 @翔仔炒家 @想成为职业炒股 @花呀发 @午夜0007 @iwill8888 @道彰 @势量价2025 @驭龙之巅 @008风 @稳一手6666 @池中水 @阳阴之道 @飘逸阳光 @GNEMA @努力赚钱买早餐 @潜龙在渊2026 for the tips.

With more followers, as a practical trader, my energy is limited. Going forward, I probably won’t be able to cover everyone thoroughly, but I’ll leave more time for those who follow me. After all, every journey in this world should be mutual.

Here, I’d like to thank @逻辑数字 @城都北一路 @旭东方 @复利板神 @精准狙击yi @老哥小龙 @周大涨 @书里迷了路 @桑德瑞 @小资金有大梦想 @Miss王小姐 @dahan @郭子哥 @@太阳6666 @飘逸阳光 and others for your encouragement.

And here, I’d like to thank everyone as a whole; no need to screenshot one by one—it takes up space on the board. Your goodwill is remembered in my heart.

· The market has risk; investing requires caution. The contents of this article are only the author’s personal market recap and viewpoint sharing, and do not constitute any actual investment advice, guidance, or promises.

· Any specific stocks mentioned in the article (such as “Huayin” (“华银”), “Shunna” (“顺那”), “Huaneng” (“华能”), “Lianeng” (“辽能”), “Yuedian” (“粤电”), “Shaoneng” (“韶能”), “Jiawei” (“珈伟”), “Guangan” (“广安”), “Jixins” (“吉鑫”), “Lixin” (“立新”), “Ouri” (“奥瑞”), “Dongfang” (“东方”), “Yuneng” (“豫能”), “Kerui” (“科锐”), “Zhongnan” (“中南”), “Huansu” (“华塑”), “Hancable” (“汉缆”), “Jieneng” (“节能”), “Zhongchao” (“中超”), “Zaisheng” (“再升”), “Guangxi” (“广西”), “Jinkong” (“晋控”), “Guigang” (“贵广”), “Xinneng” (“新能”), “Ningbo” (“宁波”), etc.) are only for case analysis and logic simulation purposes, and are in no way a recommendation to buy or sell. If investors act on this information, they do so at their own risk.

· Short-term trading has extremely large fluctuations. It’s influenced by multiple factors such as market sentiment, capital, and policies, and there is a very high level of uncertainty. Historical rules like the “4-board curse” (“4板魔咒”) may not repeat in the future, and past successful cases do not predict future outcomes.

· Please make independent judgments for each investor, and take responsibility for every trade in your own account. Don’t blindly follow the crowd—especially after there has already been a large rise, where chasing higher involves huge risk.

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