Can gold prices return to $5,000 today? | Gold Price Trend Analysis for the Next 15 Days

1. Gold News Analysis
1. Middle East Situation Fully Escalates, Short-term Signs of Relief Are Unlikely
Last Saturday (March 28), Yemen's Houthi forces launched their first direct attack since the current conflict with Israel began, immediately announcing the start of a second round of military operations using cruise missiles, drones, and powerful ballistic missiles aimed directly at key facilities in southern Israel. This move marks the official involvement of the Houthis, aligning directly with Iran and the regional "Resistance Front," significantly increasing the risk of broader geopolitical conflict. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated clearly that subsequent actions would continue until the US and Israel "stop the aggression." Israel's Defense Forces quickly responded, saying they are prepared for full-scale response and warning that any attack will come at a cost. Meanwhile, the US-Iran confrontation is also escalating. Washington has dispatched two batches of thousands of Marines to the Middle East and plans to deploy soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division, with officials preparing for ongoing ground operations against Iran that could last several weeks, pending final decisions by President Trump. Iran responded strongly, declaring US and Israeli military and political officials' residences legitimate targets. On the evening of March 29, Tehran experienced two large-scale airstrikes within ten minutes, damaging some power transmission facilities and causing power outages in multiple areas. The Israeli military claimed the strikes aimed to disrupt Iran's weapons production capabilities. Currently, the Middle East conflict is intense, with multiple parties involved, making short-term de-escalation unlikely. The situation remains highly uncertain and is the primary factor influencing gold's safe-haven sentiment.

2. Bull and Bear Factors Offset, Gold Rises and Falls
Influenced by the escalation in the Middle East, during the Asian trading session on March 30, spot gold initially surged to $4,514.42 per ounce but then quickly retreated, falling to around $4,460 per ounce at the time of writing, a nearly 1% decline intraday.
The core reason for gold's rise and fall is the strong offset between bullish and bearish factors:
- Bullish support: Geopolitical escalation drives safe-haven buying, providing a support floor for gold prices.
- Bearish pressure: The conflict pushed US crude oil prices to jump over 3% to $103.38 per barrel (a three-week high), heightening inflation concerns, which dampens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This, in turn, boosts the US dollar index for five consecutive days, which rose briefly by 0.17% to 100.33 (a new high since March 16). A strong dollar directly suppresses gold prices.
In short, safe-haven sentiment attempts to push gold higher, while a strong dollar exerts downward pressure. The fierce tug-of-war between these forces is the main reason why gold remains in a volatile, non-trending range.

2. Brief Outlook on Gold Price Trends for the Next 15 Days
Over the next 15 days, gold is likely to remain within a broad range with no signs of a trend reversal at this stage:
1. Short-term (1-5 trading days): Core range of $4,380–$4,520 per ounce, with potential volatility driven by unexpected news. Resistance clearly at the $4,500–$4,520 zone; key support at the $4,400 level.
2. Medium-term (6-15 trading days): Core range of $4,350–$4,600 per ounce. Unless there is an unexpected geopolitical escalation, the trend is likely to continue oscillating weakly. If risks intensify, prices may test resistance levels at $4,602 and $4,735, but a strong trend reversal remains unlikely.

Short-term Key Observation Zones for Gold
• Support zone: Focus on $4,415–$4,420, which is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, with particular attention to the critical risk level at $4,405.
• Resistance zone: Focus on the high of $4,550 on Friday. A breakout above this level could lead to further resistance in the $4,550–$4,600 range. Longer-term resistance levels are at $4,602, $4,735, and $4,750.

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