#BTC技术分析 | 2026.03.30

Oversold stabilization, double bottom pattern begins to form

BTC has been steadily retracing since the high on March 27, with a low of 64,731 in the early hours of March 28, hitting a two-week low. After a second test at 65,805 yesterday, it stabilized and rebounded, currently at 66,281. The support zone between 65,800 and 66,000 has repeatedly proven effective, forming an initial double bottom pattern, and the bearish selling momentum is significantly weakening.

Indicator recovery: Bearish momentum has decreased by over 80%

Regarding MACD, the death cross below the zero line has flattened, with the green histogram shrinking significantly. Currently, DIF is at -45.27, steadily rising from the previous low of -68.98; DEA has sharply converged from -821.48 to -82.54; MACD histogram has shrunk from -752 to -128, indicating over 80% of bearish momentum has been released. The gap between DIF and DEA continues to narrow; once DIF crosses above DEA, a bullish golden cross at the bottom will form.

RSI is steadily recovering from oversold territory. RSI has risen from 31.8 in the early hours of March 28 to the current 45.0, moving out of oversold zone, with bullish and bearish forces balancing. Based on the current recovery slope, a break above the 50 midline is expected within 2 to 3 candlesticks.

Bollinger Bands show effective support at the lower band. The upper band is at 67,027, the middle band at 66,528, and the lower band at 66,028. After touching the lower band, the price stabilized and rebounded, now back between the middle and lower bands. The upper band at 67,027 is the first short-term resistance.

KDJ indicates a confirmed bottom golden cross. K value at 56.13 crosses above D at 50.34, forming a bottom golden cross; J value has risen to 67.71 into the strong zone, signaling a clear short-term bullish trend.

Moving Averages

MA7 is at 66,324, very close to the current price; MA30 is at 66,591, serving as the first short-term resistance. MA7 is about to cross above MA30, which, if confirmed, will form a short-term golden cross, a key signal for trend strengthening. MA120 is at 68,166, and MA200 at 68,758, both still trending upward, indicating the medium-term uptrend remains intact and the mid-term structure is complete.

Major structural assessment

This retracement is a high-level shakeout rather than a trend reversal. MACD histogram recovery is very rapid, with bearish momentum nearly exhausted; RSI has rebounded from oversold territory without forming a second bottom; the SAR stop-loss support at 64,998 has not been broken; the long-term MA200 remains upward, and the mid-term structure remains intact.

Operational suggestions

Consider incremental positions in the 65,500 to 66,000 range during the retracement, with an initial 40% at around 66,000, and add 30% at 65,500. Set stop-loss at 64,800; if broken, exit the position. First target at 67,000, aligning with the Bollinger upper band and above MA30; second target at 69,000, corresponding to the MA120 trend return. If price falls below 64,800, be alert for further decline toward 63,500 to 64,000.

Data source: Gate.io Spot 1H K-line