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【Price Trend Analysis】
1. Candlestick Patterns:
* 4-hour chart: A bearish candle with a long lower shadow, closing near the lows, and significantly increased volume, indicating that buyers attempted to step in during the decline, but the bears still dominate. The price broke through multiple recent support levels, creating a new low. The previous candles mostly have small bodies or are bearish, showing sustained market pressure.
* Daily chart: On March 29th, a bearish candle with a long lower shadow, closing near the lows, indicating some support below but still strong bearish momentum. On March 27th, a large volume bearish candle appeared, indicating strong selling pressure and establishing a short-term downtrend.
2. Technical Indicators:
* MACD:
* 4-hour chart: DIF and DEA are both below zero, indicating a bearish trend. Although the MACD histogram (3.90) briefly turned positive, DIF (-27.93) crossed above DEA (-29.88), forming a golden cross, but both DIF and DEA remain negative, and the latest candle's price dropped sharply to a new low. This could signal a weak rebound or a continuation of the downtrend, so caution is advised for potential bearish divergence (if the price continues to fall while MACD's golden cross fails to push the price higher).
* RSI:
* 4-hour chart: RSI14 is at 35.44, entering oversold territory (below 40), suggesting a short-term oversold rebound may occur. However, combined with the ongoing price decline and new lows, if RSI remains in oversold territory, it indicates the strong downtrend is likely to continue.
* EMA:
* 4-hour chart: EMA7 (1996.43), EMA30 (2039.48), and EMA120 (2088.74) are in a bearish alignment (EMA7 < EMA30 < EMA120), and the latest price (1983.05) is well below all moving averages, showing a clear downward trend. The EMAs are diverging downward, exerting strong dynamic resistance on the price.
3. Volume:
* 4-hour chart: Volume (924,431) has significantly increased compared to previous candles, accompanying the price decline and new lows, indicating strong bearish selling pressure. Some funds are attempting to accumulate at low levels, but this has not prevented the price from falling further.
* Daily chart: On March 27th, a massive volume of 5,023,322 was recorded during the decline, confirming substantial selling pressure. Recent daily volume remains high during the downtrend, reflecting active market participation dominated by bears.