Geopolitical conflicts are a net negative for cryptocurrencies in the short term. In the medium term, it depends on whether the narrative of "safe-haven assets" can be switched, but there are no clear signals of this in BTC's current price action. Currently, BTC is still following macro risk sentiment fluctuations rather than moving independently. If the conflict escalates further and inflation expectations rise, the probability of continued short-term pressure increases. It is recommended to manage position risk accordingly.