📊 TradFi Market Outlook | 3/29

The market is lying; data will tell the truth.

This weekend, beneath the surface calm, there are turbulent currents—

U.S. Stocks: Optimism is the most dangerous emotion
The rally in March has made many forget the risks. But don’t forget: tariffs will be implemented in April, non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and Fed rate hike bets are already forming. The current calm is more like the last breath before the storm. Those holding profits need to be more cautious than those holding losses.

Gold: Smart money has already taken sides
Central banks are buying, institutions are buying, retail investors are still asking, "Can I buy more when it’s already risen so much?" — Historically, retail investors are always the last to know about major market moves. Gold’s logic isn’t short-term speculation; it’s a long-term bet on the restructuring of the monetary system.

Crude Oil: Don’t be fooled by the pause
A 10-day window isn’t peace; it’s reloading. The Middle East’s powder keg doesn’t need a reason to explode, just a fuse. Energy positions are currently the cheapest insurance against geopolitical risk.

U.S. Treasuries: The final warning
The bond market is signaling something, but no one wants to listen. If April’s inflation data exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations shift from “betting” to “consensus,” it will be too late to run.

Core judgment for this week:
April is the most critical month of the year. Tariffs, inflation, and geopolitics—three pressures hitting simultaneously. The most valuable thing now isn’t positions, it’s ammunition. Keep cash ready and wait for the prey.