Next week (March 30th - April 3rd), the movements of gold and crude oil will be deeply entangled in the two core contradictions of geopolitical situations and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

The specific forecasts are as follows:

📈 Gold: Range-bound with caution for a potential retest of lows

Gold prices rebounded after a sharp decline, but overall sentiment remains bearish. Next week is expected to see mainly sideways movement at low levels. The key reasons are:

· Stagflation risk suppression: Middle East conflicts push up oil prices, while the U.S. faces risks of “slowing growth + rising inflation.” Expectations of Fed rate cuts have cooled, and rate hikes may even resume, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
· Technical pressure: Gold is currently in a “tug-of-war” between $4,440 and $4,620. Falling below the critical support at $4,440 could trigger a new downward wave; conversely, only if it stabilizes above $4,620 can the current bearish outlook be reversed.

🛢️ Crude Oil: High-level consolidation with remaining bullish momentum

Supported by supply shocks from geopolitical conflicts, the medium-term trend remains bullish. However, after rapid gains, next week may see high-level consolidation as profits are digested.

· Supply concerns persist: Although rumors of peace talks cause volatility, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, with about 20% of global oil transportation disrupted, sustaining supply shortage fears that support oil prices.
· Technical correction needs: WTI crude oil is currently oscillating around $100 per barrel. If it retraces to the $98-$100 range and stabilizes, it would be a good support level; attention should be paid to whether resistance at $102-$105 can be broken.

Summary and risk warning

The core variables in the market next week are news related to the US-Iran situation and U.S. non-farm payroll data. Any substantial progress in ceasefire or negotiations could trigger sharp fluctuations in gold and crude oil prices.

Note: The above analysis is based solely on current market information and does not constitute direct investment advice. Geopolitical and macro policies change rapidly; please control risks accordingly. #创作者冲榜