2026 Boao Asia Forum | Dialogue with former Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization, Koopman: "Under the 'tariff war,' global trade has not experienced a significant shrinkage"

How Can Companies Maintain Trade Resilience Under the Tariff War?

On March 25, during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, Robert Koopman, former chief economist of the World Trade Organization and professor at American University, was interviewed by Beijing Business Daily reporters, sharing insights on topics such as the development of artificial intelligence and the global economic situation. According to Koopman, despite the ongoing tariff war, global trade has not shrunk significantly as expected, which can be attributed to supply chain adjustment strategies at the corporate level and the continued diversification of trade pursued by major economies like China.

In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts and challenges to regional cooperation, Koopman urged countries to seek new foundations for cooperation and specifically noted that China is undergoing a profound transformation from an export-oriented economy to one driven by domestic consumption. This shift is not only crucial for its own development but will also provide important demand support for the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

Coordination of Artificial Intelligence Regulation is Urgent

At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, AI and humanoid robots undoubtedly topped the hot search lists. Attendees are highly concerned about topics such as technological evolution, industry implementation, safety ethics, and international regulatory cooperation. Koopman believes that artificial intelligence technology is entering a critical development phase, containing immense potential but also posing new challenges for regulation and governance. Countries should strengthen coordination to ensure that technological benefits reach broader social groups.

“China has made significant progress in training artificial intelligence models, with lower training costs, and data and energy consumption far below that of similar models in the United States,” Koopman stated. Meanwhile, whether in China or the United States, artificial intelligence will become an important force for economic transformation, bringing significant benefits but also impacting certain labor groups. Governments need to pay attention to this and address social adjustments while promoting technological development.

Regarding the governance of artificial intelligence, Koopman pointed out that the United States has not yet established a comprehensive regulatory environment for model development and deployment. Although there has been discussion about what rules need to be established, there is a lack of coordination at the government level. He believes that major countries developing artificial intelligence should seek coordination and cooperation to establish appropriate oversight frameworks. Such frameworks would help ensure that technological development serves broader social interests, not just those of the technology developers.

Capital Flows Remain Resilient

When discussing the global economic situation, Koopman believes that despite facing broader global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, capital flows have remained quite resilient. “They have not increased as some expected, but they also have not completely collapsed. In particular, global capital seems to be largely focused on the artificial intelligence sector.”

In January 2026, international gold prices soared, reaching a historical high, but by late March, gold prices had fallen for consecutive days, leading to increasing discussions about gold no longer being a “safe haven.” In this regard, Koopman analyzed that the previous rise in gold prices was mainly driven by geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainties, which still exist today.

“Global investors must weigh what constitutes a safe asset? Typically, precious metals like gold and silver are seen as potential safe-haven assets, but U.S. Treasuries and certain stock markets also offer very high returns. I believe that when gold prices rise to a certain level, many investors begin to think this is unsustainable and look to shift their assets to other investment areas, either to places offering higher risk-return ratios or alternative safe assets,” Koopman said.

China Benefits Many Countries

The theme of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 is “Shaping a Shared Future: New Situations, New Opportunities, New Cooperation,” aimed at injecting certainty into a “world full of uncertainties.” Currently, the tariff war has had multiple profound impacts on global trade development, making multilateral cooperation and regional collaboration crucial.

Koopman stated that current geopolitical conflicts pose challenges to regional cooperation, and the level of cooperation could quickly hit bottom, but there is hope for rebuilding a “baseline” for cooperation afterward. He specifically mentioned that the upcoming 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization will be an important window to observe the direction of international cooperation. “If WTO members can find areas where they can reach consensus and update the rules, policies, and procedures of the WTO, this may provide a foundation for how we advance cooperation and coordination in the future.”

Koopman pointed out that despite the U.S. imposing tariffs, global trade has not experienced a significant decline. Part of the reason includes U.S. companies importing in advance, seeking alternative procurement sources, or adjusting tariff classifications; China has also implemented a long-term strategy of trade diversification, expanding exports to other countries. It is noteworthy that tariffs are not the biggest driving force behind trade growth; rather, economic growth is. Other factors are reducing trade costs, partially offsetting the increase in tariffs.

As Koopman mentioned in the seminar on “The New Landscape of Global Trade Under the Impact of Tariff Wars,” global trade is expected to achieve a resilient growth of 4.6% in 2025, with the growth rate of service trade exceeding that of manufacturing. This indicates that the global trade chain is not simply retreating but is undergoing a deep restructuring process; at the same time, GDP growth and technological innovation are far more powerful drivers of trade than tariffs. Asia, as the world’s largest integrated trade region, will become the core battleground for global “re-globalization.”

When discussing China’s role in global trade, Koopman stated that China’s rise has benefited many developing countries in Asia and beyond. These countries export raw materials, bulk commodities, and low-end components to China, and they now hope to learn from China’s transformation path to rapidly climb up the value chain. Many countries are closely watching China’s economic rebalancing process from reliance on investment and exports to expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption.

“Chinese companies are helping other countries and regions enhance their technological capabilities through foreign investment. China should not only become a model for industrial upgrading but also a source of global demand, assisting other countries in following a similar development path,” Koopman admitted. This transformation is not easy, especially in the context of accelerated artificial intelligence and technological changes, as many companies still heavily rely on exports to sustain operations. The shift from a manufacturing-driven to a service-driven growth model requires time.

Beijing Business Daily Reporter Dong Hanxuan