Wall Street absent this weekend, the crypto market is embroiled in a fierce battle over reserves. Who will hold the fate sign next Monday?

The cryptocurrency market over the weekend lost the cash injection ability from Wall Street institutions, instantly shifting from incremental betting to pure stock fighting. Without the continuous buying guidance from ETFs, the entire market fell into a vicious cycle of reduced volume and oscillation. This kind of lifeless market tests human nature the most—bulls struggle for a rebound while bears battle against interest costs. The current calm is merely a prelude to the storm before Wall Street reopens next Monday.

Institutional funds pause injection, market enters reduced volume oscillation

The weekend market had no new data updates, which says it all—the funding channels from Wall Street have temporarily closed. The net inflow signal of the ETF led by Fidelity (FBTC) in the previous trading day was the last support message left for the market by institutions.

This weekend, the market resembled a patient that lost its blood supply; if the price of coins did not collapse within these 48 hours, it indicates that the market’s spontaneous buying power has undergone a real test. This signal itself is very important—it means that a consensus on the bottom is quietly being established.

Fear sentiment bottoms out, retail investors’ nerves are stretched to the limit

The current market sentiment index remains in the extreme fear range, and the continuous days of single-digit hovering have made retail investors’ nerves extremely tense. This long-term panic has become a norm, and retail investors have become basically numb to the declines.

The more we are at this position, even a small bullish candle can trigger a retaliatory rebound. Here, panic becomes cheap, but the chips are becoming expensive—this is a typical characteristic of a market bottom.

Derivative rate bomb unresolved, weekend low liquidity becomes a pinpoint explosive weapon

The significant reduction in weekend liquidity has turned the derivatives market into a high-risk area. The previously mentioned negative rates on currencies such as PIPPIN and SUI remain high, and the longer a bear holds a position, the higher the interest they have to pay—this “holding cost” will be infinitely amplified in a weekend with reduced volume.

More dangerously, manipulators prefer to use targeted sell-offs during this low liquidity window on Sunday night (before U.S. stock futures open) to explode crowded short positions. Over the weekend, the risk of pinpoint explosion for high leverage positions sharply increases.

Technicals remain quiet, key positions test natural buying power

Due to the reduced trading volume over the weekend, technical indicators such as RSI are in a dull state, hovering in a weak range. The reference significance of the heatmap at this moment has significantly decreased.

What truly deserves attention is whether BTC can stabilize at the support level. As long as there is no breakout at the key position, the bullish divergence pattern in the technicals remains valid—this will be an important foundation for whether a rebound can take place next week.

Nearly $260 billion in stablecoins unchanged, institutional ammunition still to be fired

MicroStrategy’s holding value remains high, and Saylor has made no adjustment, which itself is a silent response to the declines. More importantly, the market values of USDT and USDC remain stable at high levels, and this nearly $260 billion in stablecoins is like a reserve army on the sidelines.

These bullets have not exited, indicating that capital is merely observing and is not truly afraid to leave the market. Once Wall Street institutions restart their engines next Monday, especially if BlackRock (IBIT) can achieve a shift from net outflow to net inflow, these stablecoins will become boosters, driving a real short squeeze counterattack.

Spot stays flat, contracts need caution, Monday’s Wall Street return is the turning point

This weekend, the wisest response for retail investors is:

Spot side: Maintain a flat position. Most of the weekend’s fluctuations are noise, as giving up blood-stained chips for just a few points of rise or fall is the most foolish choice. During the period when Wall Street is absent, any trading is mere small play within the market.

Contract side: Be sure to hold back. Weekend liquidity is poor, and spikes are common. Especially for currencies like SUI, which have high manipulation and high negative rates, do not gamble on direction; the risk of pinpoint explosion is infinitely amplified during this period.

The real highlight next week is Wall Street’s restart—if BlackRock can achieve a shift from selling to buying before Monday’s market opens, that will be the true beginning signal of a real short squeeze counterattack. Fidelity’s bottom fishing was just an appetizer; BlackRock’s involvement will be the main course. At that time, the $260 billion in stablecoins will welcome a launch window, and that will be the true life-and-death battle of the market.