Why the Altcoin Season Has Not Arrived Yet: Raul Pal's Forecast for 2026

Renowned macro analyst Raoul Pal believes that the true alt season will not begin until 2026. His forecast is based on the analysis of global economic cycles and the characteristics of capital movement during changes in macroeconomic conditions.

Alt season postponed: why now is not growth, but a pause

Raoul Pal — a former executive at Goldman Sachs and one of the founders of Real Vision — asserts that the current lull in the cryptocurrency market does not indicate its weakness. It is merely a transitional period between development cycles. When economic activity slows down, investors tend to avoid risky assets, shifting capital into more conservative instruments. The reverse process occurs when the economy accelerates — capital begins to migrate to the riskier end of the spectrum, fueling altcoins.

The key point: against the backdrop of preparing conditions for a significant influx of liquidity, the White House and large investment funds are already working in this direction. The market is preparing for a substantial increase in the money supply.

Liquidity — the main driver of the crypto market

Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market move in sync with the global dynamics of cash flows. Almost all volatility in the prices of altcoins and Bitcoin reflects the cyclicality of global liquidity expansion and contraction. At present, the price of crypto assets reflects concerns about a possible recession, although the likelihood of its occurrence remains minimal.

The main economic trend is built on the systematic devaluation of fiat currencies. Governments need new financial resources to service growing public debts. Liquidity increases year after year, lifting all categories of risky assets — from stocks to cryptocurrencies. This process is systemic in nature and cannot be halted by structural factors.

Why 2026 will be a turning point for crypto

After the financial crisis of 2008, business cycles became longer and more predictable. The transformation of the debt structure that occurred in 2022 shifted the peak of the next economic cycle precisely to 2026. According to Pal, it is during this period that the most powerful surge of liquidity growth will occur.

The current slowdown in the cryptocurrency market is not a downward trend reversal, but a temporary lag behind macroeconomic processes. When liquidity begins to rise again, the cryptocurrency market will accelerate faster than all other assets. The main wave of movement has not even begun yet. The alt season is ahead, but the full-scale development of events will start precisely in 2026, when the conditions for a significant capital shift into digital assets ripen.