Here is a set of the simplest, practical, no-nonsense methods for judgment. With these, you can tell for yourself: is it a genuine decline or a main force shakeout.

1. The core statement
A shakeout is "scaring you out," a genuine decline is "main force selling."
A shakeout drops quickly and rebounds quickly; a genuine decline is slow, continuous, and weakens as it goes.

2. The 5 most practical criteria (direct comparison)

1. Look at trading volume (most accurate)
- Shakeout: declining with decreasing volume, rising with increasing volume
- Main force doesn’t want to sell genuinely, just dumping to scare retail investors, so selling volume isn’t large.
- Genuine decline: declining with increasing volume, rebounds with decreasing volume
- Someone is continuously unloading, buying power is weakening.

2. Look at the speed and pattern of the decline
- Shakeout: sharp drop, short decline, quick rebound after falling
- Usually completed within a few days, not dragged out.
- Genuine decline: downward trend, slow decline, hitting new lows every day
- Small drops each day, the center of gravity keeps shifting downward, rebounds are weak.

3. Look at key support levels
- Shakeout: stops falling when hitting important moving averages/platforms, not effectively breaking through
- Genuine decline: support levels break one after another, and do not recover after breaking.

4. Look at chip distribution
- Shakeout: bottom chips remain unchanged
- Main force’s core holdings are still there, just shaking out floating chips.
- Genuine decline: bottom chips continuously decrease and move upward
- Main force is quietly running away.

5. Look at the overall market and sectors
- Shakeout: often against the sector trend, the market rises but it deliberately falls
- Genuine decline: falls along with the sector, or even more sharply.

3. The most straightforward practical rule
- Sharp decline with decreasing volume and no new lows → most likely a shakeout
- Slow decline with increasing volume and falling every day → basically a genuine decline
- After three days of decline without recovery → not a shakeout, but distribution
- Rapid rebound after decline → typical shakeout

4. Immediate judgment steps you can use
- Check if the current decline is accompanied by continuous increasing volume
- See if it can quickly rebound after falling
- Check if bottom chips are moving away
- See if support levels are broken and not recovered
The more features of a "genuine decline" are met, the less likely it is a shakeout.