[U.S. Stock Market Open] Oil prices up 2%, U.S. Treasury yields hit 4.46%, Dow Jones drops 354 points (updating continuously)

U.S. President Trump announced a 10-day extension for bombarding Iranian power plants, which did not ease market concerns but rather raised worries that prolonged warfare could impact oil supply and exacerbate global economic shocks, leading to speculation that central banks around the world may enter a rate hike cycle. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.46%, the highest in over eight months; the 20-year Treasury yield even surpassed 5%, a first since July of last year.

U.S. stock market performance was mixed. The Dow dropped 354 points to close at 45,605, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 6,432, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.8% to 21,245.

Oil prices continued to rise, with New York crude oil up 2.6% to $96.95, Brent May crude up 2.4% to $110.57, and June crude rising 2.1% to $104.02.

Gold prices increased by over 1%, with New York futures gold at $4,448, up 0.9%, and spot gold at $4,418, also rising 0.9%.

Funds continued to flow into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, pushing the dollar index above 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) noted a neutral stance on the dollar at a tactical level, considering, on one hand, that the U.S. enjoys favorable trade conditions as the world’s largest net energy exporter amid the current energy crisis, and on the other hand, reflecting the dollar’s defensive asset status during market volatility. Given the current inflation situation, we believe the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts is more limited than before, with the baseline scenario predicting at most one rate cut in 2026, down from the previous expectation of 1 to 2 cuts.

The bank expects that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizes, the market will gradually return to a trend of diversifying away from the dollar, exerting moderate downward pressure on the dollar against some major currencies. This outlook reflects ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while other economies like Australia and China show relatively improved prospects. However, the upward risk for the dollar remains, and the longer the disruption in energy supply lasts, the more pronounced this risk becomes.

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Market Trends:

【18:29】Trump extends the ultimatum deadline by 10 days; Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. Dollar and long-term Treasury yields rise.

【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points to 46,407, S&P futures up 29 points to 6,554, Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5% to 23,905.

【15:11】Oil prices mixed; New York crude down 0.3% to $94.24, Brent crude up nearly 0.1% to $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures gold at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.

【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google unveils new technology TurboQuant for distributed storage; chip stocks. Morgan Stanley describes it as “another DeepSeek moment.” Analysis: Positive for cloud service giants.

【11:26】【U.S. Dollar Bills】Trump’s signature to appear on the new U.S. currency, breaking a 165-year presidential tradition.

【11:15】【Yen Trends】Yen to Hong Kong dollar at 4.91; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama hints at intervention in the currency market.

【10:56】【AAPL】Apple unusually grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.

【10:49】【U.S. Interest Rates】Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson: The impact of rising energy prices on inflation remains limited; current interest rate stance is appropriate.

【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s U.S. advertising revenue exceeds $100 million in six weeks; expansion to more countries in the coming weeks.

【10:07】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices recover some ground; Trump delays deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran again. Turkey’s central bank sold over $8 billion in gold, increasing downward pressure on gold prices.

【10:06】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Extends negotiation deadline to April 6. “The Iranian representatives politely requested seven days; I gave them ten days.” (Updates ongoing)

【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises prices for all U.S. subscriber plans; increases of over 12%.

【09:28】【New IPOs】Anthropic reportedly considering an IPO as early as October, aiming to raise over $60 billion.

【08:47】【New IPOs】SpaceX reportedly planning an investor briefing in April, intending to allocate up to 30% of the IPO quota to retail investors.

【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri gets a “major overhaul”; Apple reportedly plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.

Stock Prices Below $1 for March 26 U.S. Market Conditions====

Thursday: Trump extends the deadline for bombing Iranian power plants by 10 days; oil prices fluctuate.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, stating, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my decision to pause the destruction of the power plant for 10 days, until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the false claims spread by the fake news media and others, the talks are progressing very smoothly.”

Brent crude oil at one point evaporated a 7% gain; however, due to the information still indicating that the Strait of Hormuz faces an additional 10 days of blockade, oil prices rebounded 5% to $107.

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Inflation concerns persist, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points at 45,960, the S&P down 1.7% at 6,477, and the Nasdaq down 2.4% at 21,408.

Trump stated in a cabinet meeting that the U.S. will continue to strike them until Iran reaches an agreement to end the conflict. He confirmed during the meeting that the U.S. still plans for the war with Iran to last only four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by the Iranian negotiating team was to allow at least eight oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that these ships being able to pass through the strait was a signal to the U.S., indicating that the negotiating team was saying “we are real and reliable.” Trump said that these oil tankers may fly the flag of Pakistan. He continued, saying, “I said at the time, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’” In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they said and indicated they were going to send two more ships." The White House declined to provide further details about the tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating that the Iranian negotiating team was quite unusual and somewhat “weird.” On one hand, they “pleaded” for the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he found understandable. However, they publicly stated that they were only considering the U.S. proposal. He bluntly stated that it was a major mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously soon, or it would be too late, and the consequences would be dire!

He later stated in an interview that the Iranian issue would be resolved soon, not taking too long, and energy prices would fall, possibly even to lower levels. He was unsure if they would be willing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago and had missed the opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had completely destroyed the Iranian navy and air force, about 90% of their missiles and missile launchers, and that Iran was supposed to use nuclear weapons against Israel, other countries in the region, and the U.S.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying that Iran formally responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement on Wednesday (25th) and is awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that the enemy’s aggression and terrorist acts must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be executed across all fronts and against all resistance organizations involved in this battle throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed its participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to promote de-escalation in the region.

Schroeder pointed out that the developments in the Iranian conflict present multiple possibilities, making the economic and financial market outlook unclear: if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel or fall below $90, the global economy will look completely different. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased, while the probability of the previously moderate and dovish “economic stability” scenario has correspondingly decreased.

The bank indicated that, given the inflationary pressures from the impact of oil prices, it has raised the probability of an “overheating” economic scenario; however, this assessment remains lower than the market-derived probabilities. Central banks around the world will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

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Market Trends:

【23:00】Trump: Iranian issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 75 points, oil price up 4%.

【21:30】Trump urges Iranian negotiators to take it seriously soon. Egypt confirms participation in mediation. Dow down 218 points, oil price up 4%.

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Oil price up 4%, gold price falls after two days of gains.

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points at 46,521, S&P futures down 29 points at 6,611, Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5% at 24,241.

【14:27】Oil price rises 2%, New York crude at $92.41, up 2.3%, Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices retreat after two days of gains, New York futures gold down 3% at $4,446, spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429.

【14:19】【Private Equity】Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: Private market hides “fire” risk. Not selling assets could trigger massive write-downs.

【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points. Analysis: The current rebound is driven by ceasefire speculation; the U.S.-Iran war is unlikely to end in the short term, and oil prices are expected to rise again.

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors are underestimating the risks of the Iranian war. Even if “war is announced to end tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.

【11:43】【AI + Meta】AI investments are substantial. Meta initiates a new round of layoffs affecting hundreds of employees.

【10:47】【Dollar Trends】Morgan Stanley: Dollar rise may be a “bull trap.” The market underestimates the negative impact of the Iranian war on the U.S. economy. The Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year.

【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Fed Governor Milan raises rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, stating it is not due to oil prices and Iranian factors.

【09:28】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices rebound after nine consecutive declines. Spot gold reclaims the $4,500 level. The local price of gold rises by $1,800 in a single day.

【08:54】【ARM + Chips】Arm rises 8% after hours, will sell its own chips for the first time. Expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, with Meta as the first major customer.

【08:26】【New IPOs】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, hoping to raise over $75 billion.

【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will deliver a “big gift” today. Rubio and Vance involved in negotiations with the premise that “they must not possess nuclear weapons.” (Updates ongoing)

【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks suffer again. Amazon reportedly developing a new type of AI agent to replace some departmental functions.

Stock Prices Below $1 for March 24 U.S. Market Conditions====

Tuesday: U.S. seeks talks with Iran on Thursday; Brent oil stabilizes, Dow’s losses narrow.

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. is in contact with Iran regarding a ceasefire proposal. Axios reported that U.S. intermediaries are discussing the possibility of high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.

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Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirmed that the U.S. had sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices were cautious, with Brent crude rising 0.2% to close at $100.17 and New York crude rising 4.8% to close at $92.35.

Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising 1.6% to close at $4,475.51, while spot silver prices remained largely unchanged at $71.2194.

The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.23, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks were weak, with the Dow previously down 438 points, reaching a low of 45,769, closing down 84 points at 46,124. The S&P fell 0.4% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 21,761.

Trump has postponed the ultimatum by five days, but Israel and Iran continue to experience sporadic attacks. The Prime Minister of Pakistan expressed willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.

Market news indicates that Iran has begun charging some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz a toll, with fees collected temporarily on a case-by-case basis, with a maximum of $2 million per trip, effectively establishing an informal “toll” on this waterway. It is reported that some vessels have already paid the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanisms are unclear, including what currency is used.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that a ship flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after closely coordinating with Iranian authorities.

According to Israeli media Ynet, the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date to end the war against Iran, meaning there are more than half a month for fighting and negotiations, with Washington striving to end hostilities by the end of April.

Reports suggest that if the conflict ends as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around May 14, just before Israel’s Independence Day. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating and trying to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, which may take place in Pakistan this week, although neither side has officially confirmed.

Additionally, according to CCTV citing Russian media, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to pay hefty costs for U.S. involvement in the Iranian conflict.

The report mentions that Trump has demanded enormous “protection fees” from Arab allies, either paying $5 trillion (about HKD 39 trillion) to extend the conflict or paying $2.5 trillion (about HKD 19.5 trillion) to end the war, claiming it is compensation for “achievements made.”

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Market Trends:

【22:50】Reports indicate Iran is charging “tolls” from commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil price rebounds 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan states it is ready to host U.S.-Iran talks. Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%. Oil price rebounds 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there hope for U.S.-Iran war? Reports Trump demands high protection fees: $2.5 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】Reports suggest the U.S. has set April 9 as “End War Day.” Iran continues to deny this.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264, S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596, Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258.

【14:00】Oil prices rebound, with New York crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%, and Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices remain soft, with New York futures gold down 0.9% at $4,400, and spot gold down 1.1% at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices are expected to be constrained by ongoing volatility from Middle Eastern conflicts; maintaining year-end target of $6,250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, guaranteeing a 17.5% minimum return to capture the corporate AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices soften after nine consecutive declines. The local price of gold falls below $40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production for this season by about 33%. The reduction may continue until April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trends】Gold prices have fallen over 20% from their highs, entering a bear market. Morgan Stanley notes that funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to the stock market, which is a positive signal for U.S. stocks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】The Ministry of Finance is reportedly evaluating the supply chain related to oil products to address the crisis. The ministry is consulting the market on potential interventions in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge impacts through shareholding.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI mentions in investor documents that its reliance on Microsoft poses risks. What other risks are there?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to address risks.

【07:30】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will be held from June 8, expected to unveil a series of AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iran’s parliament speaker denies having negotiated with Trump. The British destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean. (Updates ongoing)

Stock Prices Below $1 for March 23 U.S. Market Conditions====

Monday: Trump’s remarks remain questioned; Dow’s gains halved to 631 points, oil prices continue to drop by 10%.

U.S. President Trump claimed to be negotiating with Iran, pausing strikes on power plants, which stimulated a drop in oil prices and a rebound in stocks. The Dow had risen 1,134 points, reaching a high of 46,712; the S&P had risen 2.2%, reaching a high of 6,651; the Nasdaq had risen 2.5%, reaching a high of 22,189. However, the closing gains narrowed, with the Dow finishing up 631 points at 46,208, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581, and the Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

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Oil prices had previously dropped by 14.1%, closing down 10% with New York crude at $88.13 and Brent crude at $100.5. Spot gold prices had dropped 7%, reaching a low of $4,099.18, and closed down 1.9% at $4,407.18.

Macquarie Group’s global forex and interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical about the news and tweets regarding an imminent ‘breakthrough.’ We believe that the war is unlikely to continue past April, as Iran’s threats may be diminished by then, but large-scale military action is also unlikely to end within this week.”

Trump stated on the social platform Truth Social that negotiations with Iran had gone smoothly over the past two days, and he directed the U.S. war department to pause all military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent upon the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump later pointed out that the two countries had reached multiple agreements during negotiations and had discussed potential leadership candidates in Iran, stating that Iran had agreed to forgo nuclear weapons. However, he also mentioned that if U.S.-Iran talks fell apart, bombing actions would continue.

However, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later cited Iranian sources stating that there had been no negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and that no negotiations were currently ongoing. They also indicated that U.S. attacks were ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz would not return to a state of conflict. Another agency, Mehr, also quoted the Iranian Foreign Ministry stating that Trump’s remarks aimed to lower energy prices and buy time for his military plans.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry subsequently stated that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the one to engage in dialogue, as the war was not instigated by Iran.

Trump later further responded that negotiations were conducted on Sunday night (22nd), emphasizing that Iran was eager to reach an agreement, while expressing confusion as to why Iranian media would refute his statements.

T. Rowe Price noted that after the attack on Iran, gold prices experienced a typical safe-haven rise, but the momentum did not sustain, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the event. Investors did not perceive it as a persistent geopolitical shock; instead, they were more inclined to view it as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which were unfavorable for gold prices.

Gold prices had already accumulated significant gains before the event, limiting the space for new safe-haven inflows. It is expected that gold price trends will be influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be crucial, along with monitoring energy prices and the dollar’s movement. The bank still views gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks, coupled with unclear policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even if short-term price movements may remain volatile.

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Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing actions will continue. Dow rebounds 890 points, oil prices drop by 10%.

【21:30】Trump postpones the ultimatum by five days, stating negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Dow rebounds 744 points, oil prices drop by 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations are taking place. Dow futures gains narrow as oil prices drop by 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in negotiations with Iran; postpones ultimatum by five days. Dow futures turn up 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%. Oil prices plunge by 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693, S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521, Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% at 23,934.

【14:13】New York crude up 0.8% at $98.97, Brent crude up 0.6% at $112.85.

【14:13】【Gold Price Trends】Spot gold price dips below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains. Local gold prices drop again by $1,000, retreating from recent highs.

【13:25】【Oil Price Trends】Goldman Sachs warns the oil market faces “the largest supply shock in history,” raising 2026 Brent crude forecasts to $85.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “seriously damaged.” The impact of the conflict is akin to the sum of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【Yen Trends】Yen to Hong Kong dollar at 4.9. Japanese officials reiterate readiness to take all necessary measures to address exchange rate fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Japanese and Korean stock markets experience a “Black Monday,” with the Korean stock market dropping 5%, initiating the sixth “sidecar” mechanism this year. The Nikkei index fell over 2,600 points at one point.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Musk: The Terafab project will be based in Austin, operated jointly by Tesla and SpaceX.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Countdown to the ultimatum: 1 day left. Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure. Oil prices fluctuate. (Updates ongoing)

【07:30】【Outlook for the Week Ahead】Continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Pay attention to comments from Fed officials. U.S. March Manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday.

【07:30】As tensions escalate in the Iranian conflict, U.S. President Trump stated to reporters on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, with the Dow’s losses at one point exceeding 600 points. U.S. long-term Treasury yields reach a six-month high, with the market’s latest expectations for a September rate hike at 40%. The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577, the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.01%.

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U.S. stock market dynamics from last week; for details, please see: U.S. Market Close | Trump states he does not want a ceasefire; Dow falls 443 points. U.S. long-term Treasury yields reach six-month high, with September rate hike probabilities at 40%.