New consumption leaders see performance catalysts in Q1; Hong Kong stocks' consumer valuations are expected to recover.

2026-03-27 12:06:47

On the evening of March 23, the constituents of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Index, Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK), released a performance forecast, indicating a net profit increase of 170% in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations, which boosted the sector. As of 1:05 PM on March 24, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Index rose by 1.79%, with Lao Pu Gold up 9.49%, leading the sector. Mixue Group (02097.HK), Master Kong Holdings (00322.HK), and China Resources Beer (00291.HK) all rose over 6%, while Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Gu Ming (01364.HK) increased by more than 3%. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF E Fund (513070) rose by 2.46%, and outstanding performance from companies during the earnings season is expected to initiate valuation recovery.

Currently, the negative catalysts in the consumer sector from March 15 have passed, and subsequent annual and quarterly reports will be disclosed, which will not only validate corporate profitability but also potentially break the pessimistic expectations of slowing growth for new consumer leaders, providing a dual recovery window for both fundamentals and market sentiment. Currently, Hong Kong consumer assets are at a low level, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Index PE at approximately 15.8 times, at the 0% percentile over the past decade, highlighting notable valuation attractiveness; in the medium to long term, the stabilization of the real estate sector combined with a rebound in consumer willingness provides ample room for valuation recovery in the sector.

Seizing the opportunity for valuation recovery in Hong Kong consumer stocks, particular attention should be paid to the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF E Fund (513070), which is the largest in scale within the Hong Kong Stock Connect (with a scale of 2 billion yuan as of 2026/3/23) and the only one in the entire market with the lowest fee rate (15+5bp), precisely positioning itself in core Hong Kong consumer assets.

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