Core Reasons for the Decline

- Macro Pressure: Middle East tensions + rebound in oil prices → inflation concerns → Federal Reserve delay in rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets
- Technical Breakdown: Failed to break $71,400, breaking below the psychological level of $70,000 and the 4-hour 200 EMA, indicating a weakening trend
- On-chain Selling Pressure: Bhutan continues to transfer out BTC (over $150 million accumulated by 2026), with large whale transfers happening frequently
- Market Sentiment: Increasing panic, contract liquidations triggering negative feedback

Key Technical Levels (Short-term)

- Resistance: $69,300–$71,000 (strong resistance zone)
- Support: $68,000 (first support); if broken, look at $65,000
- Daily Chart: Moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD death cross, clear downtrend
- 4-hour Chart: Broke below the converging triangle’s lower boundary at $69,000, confirming a downward breakout

Market Outlook

- Short-term (1–3 days): Likely to fluctuate downward, watch $68,000 support; if rebound weakens, test $65,000
- Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Depends on Federal Reserve policies, Middle East situation, and ETF capital flows; ETF still net inflow but selling pressure persists
- Risks: High volatility + contract liquidations, beware of extreme market conditions

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