The current macro situation mainly revolves around the Middle East, and recent actions by Trump are hard to interpret. On one hand, he claims Iran is no longer capable and is seeking peace, conveniently giving Trump a big gift by allowing ten ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, after making this statement, he was called out across the internet. In the past 24 hours, it seems that even suspected paid ships haven't had ten ships pass, but I guess Trump meant these ten ships are phased in.

Additionally, Iran not only shows no signs of seeking peace but also strongly asserts its intention to retain nuclear weapons. The coming days look tough. Trump has mentioned talks with Iran twice and even TACO’d once. Now that Iran is so tough, the market can no longer trust it. So even if Trump speaks nicely today, the market immediately drops, with the Nasdaq falling 2%.

The price of US crude oil has directly broken through $95, which shows the market’s blatant distrust. The funniest part is that Putin, who has always been considered Trump’s “brother,” is suspected of supporting Iran’s military actions, which are still aimed at the US. Trump and the Republicans are probably going to have a tough time.

Looking at BTC data, today’s turnover rate has surged significantly. I think this is mainly due to distrust in Trump. Previously, people believed in the possibility of talks and investor confidence, but now it seems unlikely for short-term negotiations. If the US intensifies its crackdown, Iran might take more extreme actions, which could make oil prices even more troublesome.

Since Trump took office, it feels like he’s leading the market by the nose. Tariffs have caused market turbulence, the Fed’s independence has been questioned, and support for cryptocurrencies has shown no clear direction. The decline in oil and electricity prices has even backfired. Now, actively targeting Iran makes things even more complicated.