Is the oil crisis coming? From Melbourne to Bangkok, oil prices are soaring! Chinese electric vehicles are entering a golden opportunity period.

Everyday Economic News Reporter | Duan Siyao Everyday Economic News Editor | Yu Tingting

After the Iran-U.S. conflict ignited, a Chinese person named Li Wei (pseudonym), who runs a delivery business in Melbourne, checks oil prices on his phone every morning.

“The diesel at the gas station near my home has risen to AUD 2.9 per liter (about RMB 14.1), up from less than AUD 2 a month ago,” Li Wei told the Daily Economic News. He calculated that a driver delivering packages nearly 400 kilometers daily now spends about 40 AUD (approximately RMB 193.3) more on fuel than before the price increase. This means they need to deliver 20 more packages each day just to cover the additional fuel costs.

Image source: Interviewee provided

On March 22, in Bangkok, a Chinese person named Zhang Ya (pseudonym), who has lived there for over ten years, watched the news on TV: “Thailand currently has sufficient oil reserves, and relevant departments are speeding up solutions for transportation issues. The public should view oil price adjustments rationally.” But Zhang Ya recalls that on March 17, the Thai government announced an increase in oil prices the next day, leading to some areas experiencing oil queues. She was a bit late that day and couldn’t fill her tank, finally filling up five days later.

As conflicts in the Middle East escalate, causing the Strait of Hormuz to effectively close, about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments are disrupted. Brent crude prices soared well above pre-conflict levels.

When the price of a barrel of oil begins to threaten ordinary people’s livelihoods, calculating costs becomes the most basic form of rationality. “Maybe I should consider switching to an electric vehicle,” Li Wei said, handing his phone to his wife, showing a review of a Chinese brand electric truck in Australia.

From Bangkok to Melbourne, from oil queue anxiety to car replacement plans, each calculation behind these decisions reflects a shift in the era. For Chinese automotive brands that have long been developing in the electric sector, this market change driven by the oil crisis is putting them on more people’s lists of options.

The ripple effect of war on oil prices: from Hormuz to the average person’s tank

The chain of war always extends in unexpected ways. When the fire ignited in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy artery, ordinary lives around the globe immediately felt the tension.

“I went to several gas stations early this morning but couldn’t fill my diesel tank,” a freight driver in Thailand posted online. Not only was fuel scarce, but prices had also risen significantly. Diesel was previously 29.96 Thai Baht per liter (about RMB 6.27), now up to 31.16 Baht. Recently, freight haulers are checking fuel levels carefully and filling up whenever possible.

Affected by the continuous rise in international oil prices, Thailand adjusted domestic fuel prices starting March 18. The diesel price cap was raised from no more than 30 Baht per liter to 33 Baht, with phased increases; gasoline prices for 91 and 95 octane rose by 1 Baht per liter each.

In neighboring Southeast Asia, Vietnam announced that from 11 p.m. on March 19, the prices of 95 octane gasoline and diesel increased by several thousand VND per liter, pushing prices above 30,000 VND per liter (about RMB 7.86). Before the Iran tensions, Vietnam’s oil was less than 20,000 VND per liter. On March 22, a Vietnamese Chinese person said, “Today I just filled up a tank, it cost 105,000 VND, previously it was no more than 80,000 VND.”

International crude oil prices rising also led to increases in China’s refined oil prices. On March 23, the government implemented temporary price controls. Based on the current mechanism, from 24:00 on March 23, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard grades) should increase by 2,205 RMB and 2,120 RMB per ton, respectively. After adjustments, the actual increases were 1,160 RMB and 1,115 RMB. Converted to per-liter prices, this means about a 0.87 RMB and 0.95 RMB increase per liter, respectively, about 0.85 RMB less than if no controls were applied.

On March 23, visits to some gas stations found no queues. A staff member said, “Yesterday (22nd), there were some times when you had to queue, but supply of 92 and 95 octane gasoline and diesel was normal.”

Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Siyao Duan

As the U.S.-Iran conflict stalemates, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the second time in less than two weeks. The bank now expects that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at about 5% of normal levels over the next six weeks, gradually recovering within a month. However, due to ongoing uncertainties, oil prices are expected to continue rising slightly in the short term.

The price gap between oil and electric vehicles prompts savvy buyers to choose Chinese EVs

As queues at gas stations shrink, waiting lists at electric vehicle showrooms are quietly growing.

At a BYD showroom in Perth, Australia, sales consultant Hina (pseudonym) recalled on social media that since the Iran tensions escalated, orders at her dealership have surged significantly, with daily sales exceeding ten vehicles. The delivery wait times have lengthened, and she has a long list of customers waiting to pick up their cars.

The reporter noted that after the Middle East conflict erupted, Chinese auto brands’ dealerships worldwide experienced booming business. Reports indicate that in a Filipino BYD dealership, order volumes in the past two weeks matched those of an entire month previously.

Vietnam’s largest electric vehicle company, VinFast, expects that rising fuel prices and global geopolitical tensions will support long-term demand for EVs. The company plans to accelerate expansion and strengthen charging infrastructure. Media reports say that in Hanoi, VinFast has had to hire more sales staff because visitor numbers have surged since the war began, selling 250 EVs in three weeks.

Hina was surprised that most previous EV buyers were environmentalists or tech enthusiasts, but now they include ordinary workers, taxi companies, and freight operators. The “oil shortage” and resulting price hikes have made the “oil-to-electricity” price difference more striking. For example, in Thailand, the price gap is about three times, and with Thailand’s improving power infrastructure, driving an EV can significantly save costs compared to a fuel vehicle.

“Rising oil prices not only affect gasoline and diesel prices but also increase transportation and other hidden costs,” Li Wei told the Daily Economic News. For example, in logistics and delivery, higher fuel costs seem to increase drivers’ expenses directly, but in reality, they pull up costs across the entire supply chain. Even the tape used for packaging packages has increased by AUD 0.7 per roll.

Li Wei observed that Chinese-brand new energy vehicles are quite popular in Australia. “Australia has adopted clean energy as a national strategy, with developed solar and photovoltaic industries. Many friends around me have bought Chinese-brand new energy cars in recent years,” he said. From a power perspective, hybrid vans are the most cost-effective, especially since Australia implements peak and off-peak electricity pricing—0.4 AUD per kWh during off-peak hours and 1–2 AUD during peak hours—both lower than current fuel prices.

“Oil Shock” unfolds, Chinese EVs gain opportunities

From Bangkok to Hanoi, from Melbourne to Perth, Chinese EV showrooms are crowded with people doing cost calculations. They may not care about environmental benefits or technical details—they just find that driving an EV is more economical than burning fuel. If we look back to the 1970s, we see many similarities today.

In 1973, the Fourth Middle East War triggered a global oil crisis, with prices soaring. Amid the crisis, opportunities also emerged: Japanese automakers, already focused on small, fuel-efficient cars, quickly gained market share in the U.S. thanks to their fuel economy. By 1980, Japanese car production surpassed that of the U.S. for the first time, becoming the world’s largest.

In 1979, the second oil crisis further cemented the advantage of Japanese fuel-efficient models. Meanwhile, South Korean automakers seized the post-1997 Asian financial crisis transformation window, with Hyundai leading the “quality management” approach, transforming from cheap cars to global mainstream brands over ten years. Hyundai and Kia entered the top five worldwide.

These two oil crises profoundly reshaped the global auto industry: the first established Japan’s automotive dominance, the second reinforced it, and also paved the way for Korea’s rise. Now, a new “oil shock” is unfolding. “The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of energy crises will become major opportunities for Chinese brands to replace fuel vehicles on a large scale,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, in an interview.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 21, the Japan Economic News reported that Japanese automakers’ global sales in 2025 are expected to decline slightly to about 25 million units, the first drop since 2000. In contrast, Chinese automakers sold nearly 27 million vehicles globally last year, surpassing Japan for the first time to become the world’s largest.

Tao Jin, a senior researcher at Mizuho Bank’s Business Solutions Department and an automotive expert, said that China’s surpassing Japan in total vehicle sales is not just a ranking change but signals a reconfiguration of the global automotive influence map.

“After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy costs in Europe are high, and electricity is expensive. In 2024, only 5% of new energy vehicles are expected in Europe, rising to 18% on average in 2025, mostly contributed by Chinese brands,” said Qi Shilong, executive vice president of Chery Automobile, in an interview. He added that European consumers are highly receptive to new energy vehicles, despite various trade barriers and pressures from other countries. Chinese PHEVs with long-range and smart driving experiences are very popular in Europe.

A senior executive from a multinational auto parts supplier said, “When oil prices rise, many overseas consumers, including Europeans, consider switching to EVs. I understand that electricity costs in Europe are also high, much more than domestically. But overall, this creates opportunities for Chinese auto brands.”

NIO co-founder Qin Lihong told reporters, “Given the international trends this year, oil prices are likely to continue rising. Fuel vehicles or oil-powered models may face greater price volatility risks. Meanwhile, battery prices have stabilized, so I believe 2023 still holds opportunities for new energy vehicles.”

“Under the background of rising oil prices, Chinese independent brand EVs have a very competitive advantage,” said the executive. “Exports from Chinese brands are expected to further increase this year, possibly by over 1 million units compared to 2025.” He added that China’s strategic focus on developing new energy and intelligent vehicles is very forward-looking, and these products will become increasingly popular overseas.

“Previously, Japanese and Korean cars relied on fuel efficiency to win markets; now, Chinese cars are competing by ‘not using oil,’” Li Wei said. In Melbourne’s logistics circles, three colleagues have already switched to electric trucks.

The reconfiguration of the global automotive influence map is no longer just a prediction but an ongoing reality. Ordinary people at gas stations worldwide are making choices that are accelerating the internationalization of Chinese new energy vehicles.