Secondary housing market heats up, transactions rise; a "small spring" is expected in first-tier cities.

Source: 21st Century Business Herald Author: Wu Shuying

The peak season for real estate transactions, “Golden March and Silver April,” arrives as scheduled.

Last Saturday (March 14), Shanghai set a new high for the year with 1,472 second-hand homes signed online in a single day; Beijing’s housing market saw month-on-month growth in both new and second-hand transactions driven by policy; Guangzhou’s viewing and transaction volumes for second-hand homes also increased; Shenzhen’s second-hand home transactions surged in the first half of March.

Every year in March and April, the real estate market reaches a critical point. Since the beginning of the year usually coincides with the Spring Festival, demand is deferred; additionally, demand for school district homes is typically released in March and April, boosting overall market activity. As a result, market attention is especially focused on these two months, which influence the year’s overall trend.

This year’s “Golden March and Silver April” stands out even more. The real estate market has been rational for several years, and the public is particularly hopeful that this “small spring” can achieve both volume and price growth, leading the market into a new development cycle. Multiple sources from the 21st Century Business Herald’s investigations indicate that transaction volumes in first-tier cities are clearly rebounding month-on-month, while prices remain relatively stable. Analysts suggest that under policy stimulation, cities like Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a release of demand, making this year’s “small spring” optimistic for transaction volume; Guangzhou and Shenzhen also show signs of recovery, with overall momentum expected to continue.

Transaction volume is rising in first-tier cities, prices are stable, and the overall national real estate market is showing a good start.

“Small Spring” Arrives

Shanghai is the most prominent city in this round of “small spring.”

According to CRIC, from March 9 to March 15, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market experienced explosive growth, with weekly transactions reaching 7,233 units, the highest in nearly five years (since 2021).

Data from Shanghai Online Real Estate show that on March 18, the transaction volume for second-hand homes reached 906 units on a weekday, remaining high in the market.

The recent boom in Shanghai’s transactions is driven by new policies. On February 25, Shanghai issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies,” introducing seven measures to stabilize the market, including shortening social security contribution periods for non-Shanghai residents, relaxing residence permit purchase qualifications, and increasing maximum housing loan amounts—collectively known as the “Shanghai Seven Policies.”

A national real estate company’s Shanghai client research manager told the 21st Century Business Herald that each new policy in recent years has prompted some demand to enter the market early. This time, combined with the “Golden March and Silver April” season, overall market performance has seen a surge in transactions, with prices remaining stable. “From the data we’ve observed, since December last year, second-hand home prices in Shanghai haven’t fallen further and remain quite resilient, which is a positive sign.”

Beijing’s policies from December last year are also still influencing the market. According to 58 Anju Research Institute, after the Spring Festival, as offline sales offices and agent stores fully reopened, housing demand rebounded quickly. On February 28, Beijing’s new home market heat index rose to 60.3, and second-hand housing to 66.1; by March 14, these figures further increased to 59.9 and 65.6, respectively, indicating continued policy-driven momentum.

In terms of transaction volume, from January 26 to February 1, Beijing recorded 4,244 transactions, the highest in 12 weeks, up over 30% compared to the previous week before the new policies. The market gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with 2,980 transactions in the week of March 1-8.

Unlike Beijing and Shanghai, where new policies are supporting the market, Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s market revival is driven mainly by rigid demand.

Public data shows that in the first two weeks of March, Guangzhou’s second-hand home online signing volume exceeded 4,000 units, with a single-day high of 271 units on March 15, the highest since 2023.

A real estate agent in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, told the 21st Century Business Herald, “I’ve been very busy lately, showing homes, meeting clients, signing contracts every day. Now, signing centers are crowded, unlike at the end of last year. Our agency has already closed 9 deals this month.”

Shenzhen’s data is also very direct: according to monitoring data from Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, by March 18, the total transactions of new and second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen exceeded 4,000 units. Among them, new home transactions totaled 1,474 units, up 38.9% from February; second-hand home transactions reached 2,715 units, up 58.6% from February.

The Shenzhen Centaline Research Center notes that after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen’s market has continued to rebound, with a clear increase in buyer willingness. Many projects are offering discounts and promotions, which have been effective; second-hand transactions are also quickly warming up, signaling the arrival of a “small spring.”

Signals Need Strengthening

With transaction volumes clearly rising and prices remaining stable, second-hand homeowners are showing a “hold” mentality.

According to the 21st Century Business Herald’s interviews with multiple agents in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second-hand homeowners are relatively firm on prices, with limited room for negotiation. “Earlier, good-value second-hand homes have been mostly sold. Since the Spring Festival, prices are hard to negotiate because homeowners see the market improving and prefer to rent out rather than lower prices. So, prices are generally stable now, but if prices loosen, sales will pick up quickly,” said an agent in Nanshan District, Shenzhen.

On the primary market, developers are still adopting a “price-to-sell” strategy. A marketing executive from a company focused on East China told the 21st Century Business Herald that while second-hand market volume and prices are stable, the “signal to start” for new projects remains uncertain.

Data provided by the marketing executive shows that in Shanghai and surrounding cities, the average transaction price for new homes has mostly declined this month, mainly due to developers lowering prices to boost sales and shifts in transaction structure.

“Last month, a competitor’s project nearby was priced at 85% of ours, about a few thousand yuan per square meter lower. They moved units quickly, while we hardly sold anything,” said a South China-based developer.

This divergence in sentiment is also reflected in the land market.

For example, in Shanghai, on March 13, the first batch of residential land for 2026 was auctioned, with three plots located in Jiading New Town, Xuhui Changqiao, and Qingpu Xihongqiao, totaling about 198,300 square meters of land, with a total transaction value of approximately 6.809 billion yuan. Except for the Qingpu plot, which sold at a 6.6% premium, the other two were sold at base price.

This indicates that, despite market enthusiasm, developers remain cautious in land acquisitions. Previously, during the performance meeting, Zhangjiapo Vice General Manager Wu Bin of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co. analyzed that the land market in 2026 is expected to continue low overall, with some localized hotspots.

Wu Bin emphasized that in 2026, China Merchants Shekou will continue to focus on key regions and cities, adopting a sales-driven investment approach, carefully selecting projects. Based on market conditions and cash flow, and while meeting the “three red lines,” balancing scale and profit, each project must meet the “six good” investment standards to ensure effective resource allocation, with a focus on project turnover and profit realization.

From this perspective, the current “small spring” in the real estate market can help stabilize and recover the market throughout the year, but this depends on multiple factors. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at China Index Academy, reminds that market stabilization will be a gradual process, and sustained recovery will rely on macro fundamentals such as residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations improving substantively.