[Red Envelope] Post-2000s Real Account First Day: Now 78,500 (Changfei Optical Fiber—Electro-Optic Technology—Tefa Information)

I am Reset1029, a post-2000s trader who entered the market in December 2024. I focus on leading stocks and institutional trend-following, combining both approaches. In simple terms, I look for trends within leading stocks and leading stocks within trends. [Taogu Ba]

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Today’s operations:
Follow Changfei Optical Fiber, Follow Tefa Information, Short Electric Light Technology for anti-T trend
Unfollow Great Wall Military Industry, Unfollow Tongding Interconnection

Let’s review this morning’s bidding and then discuss operations!
China Super Holdings led with the strongest one-word bid, with new energy companies like Tai Shan and Aoruit, which focus on power + optical cables and computing power, respectively, with 1 billion. I believe that commercial space and military industry fermentation are not conflicting. Also, my holdings in Electric Light Technology are fronted by Aoruit’s one-word bid, and Tongding has Xineng Taishan in front. I misjudged the situation, so my handling of holdings was not correct—I simply thought I needed to release divergence. It took me some time to see clearly!

Discussing a few issues:

1. China Super Holdings had the strongest one-word bid, but why did it ferment again in the afternoon after just rising in the morning and then retracing? Funds doubt the sustainability and success of the aerospace sector’s positioning, so they are in a wait-and-see mode. Did Huadian Electric’s missed order in the afternoon cause a small breakout?
   I personally think funds believed Huadian Electric would break in the afternoon, wanting to absorb some divergence after the funds’ split, but Huadian kept pushing upward and didn’t ferment further. Its sustainability and strength are questionable; China Super Holdings needs to make a clear statement tomorrow!

2. The collective breakout of Jiyun Tong, Jin Kong Electric Power, Shen Nan Electric A, etc., truly boosted confidence in Huadian’s limit-up. The afternoon didn’t continue to ferment the first bid, but the supplementary rise teams (Jin Kong, Huadian Energy, Xineng Taishan) remained complete, with continuous low-level additions. Even if Huadian breaks the limit, the probability of a gentle trend shift is high!

3. Why did Huadian’s price rebound after breaking the limit and then drop again in bidding? I think it was an active release of divergence for self-protection. The middle-tier has already failed in today’s internal competition. The first bids with low positions still need market validation. The big players recognized the situation, voluntarily ceded, and released divergence early to create some expectations for cooling down tomorrow!
   Tomorrow will be an extremely competitive day, with sectors like digital computing, commercial aviation, coal chemical industry, and chips all waiting for recovery.

Xineng Taishan’s order was placed, but unfortunately, the first wave of volume at open was small, so I canceled the order. Considering a step back, it might be better to focus on Zhongmin Energy and Mingpu Optical Magnet or similar stocks!

Echelon promotion and stock temperament:
3rd board: Xineng Taishan (the only 3rd board in power), Hunan Development (has some reservation), Rongjie Shares (lithium battery position), Minohua (additional rise for Huazi).

2nd board: Zhongmin Energy (Fujian attribute reduces points), Huadian Energy (old dragon resistance, paving the way for Hu Liao rebound), Bohai Chemical (needs acceleration to establish position), Zaisheng Technology (aerospace volume explosion, moderate initiative).

Huadian Energy: Old dragon resistance; if Hu Liao rebounds, it will be an important supporter.
Bohai Chemical: Needs acceleration to reverse the weak impression of the chemical sector.
China Super Holdings: One-word bid determines the direction, deciding whether aerospace can continue.
Dashengda: After breaking the limit, trend consolidation, becoming an independent high-standard emotional carrier.

Tomorrow’s ideas:

Trend direction: AI hardware is the foundation. When the sector stabilizes and rebounds, funds will be attracted to batteries, chips, robots, consumer electronics, etc. So, tomorrow’s key is hardware stabilization. The sub-sectors like optical fiber (Changfei Optical Fiber) and chips (De Mingli) need official statements (not necessarily only from the market, but also from influential voices). Otherwise, battery stocks are likely to be a local trend, especially if there is sustained momentum, like Tianshi Materials or Tianji Shares!

Power sector: If Huadian Electric bids aggressively and Huadian Energy opens high, focus on weak-to-strong rebound opportunities (e.g., Jin Kong Electric Power). If Hu Liao is hit, caution is needed, watch for anti-fall support.

Operational ideas:

Unfollow Tongding Interconnection / Follow Changfei Optical Fiber
I have limited myself here. The opening volume was very small, indicating funds are watching Huadian’s performance. Yesterday, I mentioned that Tongding Interconnection is a sentiment stock, and divergence is a point to exit. But I still want to wait for the next surge to exit, as Mingpu Optical Magnet and Changfei are showing upward moves.
In the morning, switching to Changfei at the right time was optimal, as the sector divergence and the core leader (the previous rally leader) were best, and I corrected my position promptly in the afternoon!

Remember yesterday’s two conditions for trend continuation? 1. New highs 2. Volume expansion.

Changfei meets both, so entering at a low point is fine, but be cautious that tomorrow Changfei might have the task of guiding funds back in. If the task is not as expected, treat it as arbitrage!

If you sell Tongding in the morning after a surge and then focus on core leaders like Changfei, the rhythm will be very comfortable. Next time, I will handle it better!

Electric Light Technology:
The quick realization in the computing power sector caught me off guard. After Aoruit’s limit-down, it stabilized. I thought there was still potential, so I unwound my position.

Trend-following stocks that hit the limit should have been sold for profit yesterday, but I was greedy, thinking Aoruit’s one-word bid and Electric Light Technology still had a last dance. Aoruit’s performance today was decent, but it was dragged down by Electric Light and others. It’s still an internal competition problem; volume can’t support these sectors!
Using a retracement to illustrate: when trend stocks hit the limit, they gain emotional attributes, diverging from the trend rhythm. It’s best to lock in profits timely!

Weak is weak. Waiting for a rebound to exit usually results in missing opportunities, making the situation more passive!

Tefa Information:
Optical fiber’s price increase is at a historical high. The logic of price rise is the strongest market logic. I believe the communication optical fiber sector will fluctuate repeatedly. As sentiment strengthens, Tongding’s fulfillment will continue to attract attention. I think Tefa has a chance to follow the sentiment, so consider participating at low levels.

That’s all for today. Wishing everyone prosperity. Let’s work hard together!