Bitcoin Evening Outlook

After breaking below the triangle pattern and the 70,698 neckline, the 70,000 level has also been lost, and the trend is now quite clear. It’s risky to chase short positions late. Currently, it’s under pressure below 70,057, with a high probability of testing the 68,825 support:
• Hold above 68,825 → Range-bound consolidation, limited decline
• Break below 68,825 → Hourly head and shoulders confirmed, targeting the previous low of 67,307
To rebound, it must re-establish above 70,057 to have a chance to rally toward 70,698 and 71,490; otherwise, upside potential is limited.

Long-entry ideas:
1. Left-side scaling in: accumulate in the 68,866–67,323 range, half position, stop loss at 66,571, target 70,130–71,126

2. Right-side chasing: add on a breakout above 70,130

If the hourly level stabilizes above 70,130, watch for a move toward 71,126–72,000;
If the 4-hour drops below 69,377, watch for support at 68,320–67,263.

The current retracement’s 1:1 target is at 69,080. Whether it reaches the 1.618 extension depends on this support level.
For those holding high-position shorts, it’s recommended to reduce positions around 69,080 and take profits flexibly.