# Zhao Jian: The Arrogance of Technology and the Graveyard of Empires—The Four-Layer Codes of Middle East Warfare and Possible Outcomes (Long-form Article)

Why Do Religious Factors Make U.S.-Iran Conflicts Difficult to Resolve?

This is the 903rd original article published by Xijing Research Institute, and the 843rd article by President Zhao Jian.

The U.S.-Iran war is ongoing with no signs of ending. Investors are enduring a tough period, worried about it evolving into a prolonged conflict like Russia-Ukraine, or triggering oil crises similar to those in the 1970s and 1980s, while also fearing sudden regime changes in Iran or a surprise move by Trump that could cause markets to rebound sharply, making them miss out on gains. Over the past month and a half, markets have swung between panic and FOMO, with high volatility.

For A-shares, the market surged strongly after the Spring Festival but also pulled back sharply. Such volatility is painful for investors, but quantitative strategies can take turns capitalizing on it. Like the Middle East wars, the A-share market is also an asymmetric war.

This asymmetry has three levels: First, technologically, the U.S. and Israel can easily eliminate Iranian leaders, like taking a general’s head as easily as reaching into a bag; second, strategically, Iran can outlast the U.S. and Israel—survival itself is a victory for Iran, while for the U.S. and Israel, achieving more complex and difficult goals is the aim; third, tactically, once ground warfare begins, Iran can leverage its terrain to strike land targets (U.S. bases, Israeli territory) proactively and block the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global financial and economic crisis.

Therefore, Iran, to some extent, controls the “nuclear button” for a global financial crisis.

This war was not without warning; in the past couple of years, preparations have been underway. From targeted eliminations of Revolutionary Guard commanders to the assassination of top leaders, it’s a continuous saga. On the surface, it resembles the Iraq war—aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its destructive power. But in reality, digging deeper into the motives behind the U.S., Israel, and Iran reveals that things are far more complex, and this war is unlikely to have a “soft landing.” Even if temporarily halted, a prolonged “shadow war” will continue.

Trump thought Iran was like Venezuela, or at most Iraq, but in reality, Iran might be more akin to Ukraine for Russia, or Afghanistan/Vietnam for the US—trapped in a quagmire. The arrogance of kings has led to imperial tragedies.

However, reality is always complex and often defies linear predictions. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, many predicted Ukraine would quickly fail, and some scholars excitedly forecasted a regime change in Russia, with Putin being tried. But the facts proved otherwise. Behind this war are deeper layers—beyond the old narrative of disarmament, there are historical, political, religious, and interest-based codes. These are issues that cannot be temporarily resolved and will evolve into ongoing conflicts. The Middle East will also fall into a shadow war—neither hot nor cold—marked by persistent “shadow conflicts.” Investors must prepare for stagflation and high-volatility turbulent times.

For China, this war is a short-term pain—A-shares investors will bear the cost—but in the long run, it may not be a bad thing. We are reassessing the value of the entire East Asian peace and civilization zone, where peace will become the most scarce resource of this era.

1. Political Decline and Technological Arrogance: When MAGA Meets AI Military Power

Many people don’t understand why a free, democratic, and civilized country like the U.S. would recklessly initiate such an uncontrollable war. The U.S. has the world’s most advanced war-gaming systems, experienced military think tanks, intelligence agencies, and effective checks and balances. It shouldn’t launch a seemingly reckless war that appears difficult to end.

Notably, the U.S. exhibits an interesting phenomenon: on one hand, it drives a technological revolution with AI, bringing human civilization into a new phase; on the other hand, it faces severe political decline. This is a stark political-technological divergence. Trump’s rise, supported by rednecks, is celebrated by some, but it also causes despair among scholars and elites proud of American civilization. They pessimistically predict that the U.S. will “fall apart,” and the world will be in chaos forever.

Critically viewing Trump, many right-wing intellectuals are displeased. But I emphasize, I oppose not the right wing per se, but the Hitlerian far-right extremism. My critique is not about Trump personally but about understanding the political laws of this world with a cold, empirical approach. Politics has cycles, and today’s cycle is characterized by a surge of global right-wing populism.

In North America, South America, Europe, and Japan, we see right-wing leaders rising. This reflects deep political cycle forces rooted in the backlash against the left’s dominance over the past decades. In Europe, the left’s universalist ideals triggered the largest refugee crisis in history, with Islamists nearly taking over the continent, causing severe social instability and a strong backlash among native Europeans, leading to the election of conservative, right-wing leaders.

U.S. Trumpism and MAGA are extreme examples. They exploit populist sentiments and the wealth of tech elites (like Musk), under the banners of American supremacy and white nationalism, promoting nationalism, racialism, and isolationism, stirring global unrest. I have analyzed this in depth in two of my reports (“Zhao Jian: The Rise of Global Right-Wing Populism and the Crisis of Globalization,” and “Zhao Jian: The Last Call of Globalization”).

Is it fair to blame Trump for all this? In the wave of right-wing resurgence, Trump is just an individual manifestation—an inevitable, suboptimal choice made by Americans. As many middle-class voters who supported Trump said: “I don’t like Trump, but I dislike the Democratic left even more.”

In the narrative of ordinary Americans shaped by the “Rust Belt” and “Songs of the Rural,” Trump is a helpless choice, the best available option. His passionate speeches during campaigns painted a grand vision for this lost lighthouse nation, providing emotional value to voters.

MAGA sounds appealing to Americans, but to the world, it’s a disaster. When the strongest nation advocates nationalism and ceases to provide global public goods, and leftist narratives of fairness and justice fade, it inevitably leads toward imperialism and militarism. Are the lessons of history not enough?

Even more frightening, when MAGA’s “doctrine” is empowered by AI technology, where will human civilization go?

AI is so powerful that it can be used for human benefit or human destruction. The AI-military complex is a human disaster. While many intellectuals see such technology as capable of targeted elimination of dictators and tyrants—seeming like the end of authoritarianism—in reality, it’s just technological tyranny replacing political tyranny.

This will breed immense arrogance. Arrogance is the root of evil and tragedy. It’s also the beginning of decline and collapse of empires, because it ignores the complexity of reality and civilization.

2. Behind the Middle East War: Four Layers of Hidden Codes

This Middle East war is far more complex than it appears. Initially, I misjudged, thinking technological means could easily resolve the conflict. But I quickly realized the situation’s complexity and severity, writing two articles to forecast the serious consequences (“Zhao Jian: We Underestimated the Severity of This War,” and “Zhao Jian: Without a Major Crisis, Nothing Can End”). Subsequent developments and markets confirmed my judgment.

This indicates that the driving forces behind this war are not merely disputes over nuclear weapons and oil resources.

I see four hidden, complex, and profound codes behind this conflict: historical, political, civilizational, and religious. Essentially, it’s a clash between modern technology and ancient civilizations, with catastrophic potential. This war will trigger a paradigm shift in geopolitics, and amid the ruins of civilizations, a more turbulent era of great conflicts will unfold.

Historical codes: A person is shaped by the past—family, childhood, setbacks—forming their identity. Similarly, nations and civilizations are rooted in history. Without understanding their history, we cannot grasp their present. Iran, with 3,000 years of history, retains strong traditional power. Hatred toward the U.S. and Israel is embedded in the grievances of the past century—Britain and America have long exploited Iran, and Israel has sought to eliminate it. This fear and hatred are deeply ingrained in Iran’s collective psyche, creating an anti-American, anti-Israeli consensus, leading to resilient, distributed defense and retaliation systems even after leaders are assassinated.

A brief history of U.S.-Iran grievances:

Political codes: Some see conspiracy theories here, but from a human nature perspective, it’s plausible. The war involves both the U.S. and Israel, but the real drivers are their leaders—Trump and Netanyahu. Both are controversial, face accusations, and are under election pressures. Trump’s scandals, like Epstein, remain a ticking time bomb. Netanyahu faces criminal charges, and his trial could imprison him. The 2024 Hamas attacks “saved” him temporarily, as during wartime, Israelis rally around a “strong leader.” Once the war ends, he may face impeachment again.

Civilizational codes: Ancient civilizations are resilient. Iran’s 3,000-year history includes the Persian Empire, which conquered vast regions across Asia, Africa, and Europe, and the creation of the world’s first codified laws—Cyrus Cylinder and Darius Code. Iran’s pride in its ancient civilization is profound. Khamenei’s recent speech: “Those without roots or understanding of their laws think they can conquer millennia-old civilizations.” Iran’s official statements emphasize that a country with only 250 years of history (the U.S.) cannot command a nation with 3,000 years of civilization. They see the U.S. as a mere upstart.

Religious codes: The war’s timing—late February—coincides with the Jewish Purim festival, which celebrates the fall of Haman, a Persian vizier who plotted to annihilate the Jews. Haman’s plan was foiled by Queen Esther. In Israel’s view, Khamenei is Haman, and Iran is Amalek, the ancient enemies of the Jews. In Judaism, this war is seen as “divine intervention,” with Netanyahu and Trump as “chosen ones.” Those without religious experience cannot understand this emotion—this is a final, existential battle. Trump, as a evangelical, has religious advisors, possibly even spiritualists. His ties to Judaism are close—his daughter Ivanka converted, and he visited the Western Wall. The interests and political motives behind these links are opaque. We know that Russia’s KGB and Israel’s Mossad are two of the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies. Putin is a KGB veteran; Netanyahu, though not Mossad, served in elite Israeli special forces. Their complex relationships with Trump remain mysterious. We only know that Trump’s family has long been involved in business, with many scandals and secrets.

Understanding these four hidden, deeper logics behind the Middle East war helps us see that its initiation and resolution are far more complicated than surface appearances suggest.

3. The Graveyard of Empires, the Ruins of Civilizations: A War with No Clear Victory

Starting a war may be easy, but how to withdraw intact is the real challenge.

With AI military technology, Trump’s arrogance is heightened—believing Iran is like Venezuela, and after targeted killings, Iran will surrender. Five years ago, they assassinated Iran’s top military commander, Soleimani, and Iran’s response was symbolic, leading to a temporary compromise. The expectation was that Iraq would soon see regime change. But if ground troops are involved, it could turn into Afghanistan or Vietnam—empires’ graveyards, civilizations’ ruins.

The Russia-Ukraine war has already changed the world; this Middle East war will be even more transformative. The era of great conflicts will become more chaotic and complex. Investors must prepare.

Possible outcomes include: Iran winning and controlling the Strait (unlikely); Israel and the U.S. winning and controlling Iran and the Strait (also unlikely); most likely, both sides will enter a prolonged confrontation, with the Strait remaining open but at high cost and risk.

Thus, this war is neither a sustained hot war—since both sides cannot afford prolonged consumption—nor a cold war, as no effective cooling mechanism exists. I define it as a “shadow war” after hot conflict, with the Middle East in ruins, entering a high-risk phase that could trigger a global financial crisis in the short term and a long-term economic crisis.

“Their war, our cost.” It’s a war with no winners. On the surface, Israel seems to have benefited—achieving Purim’s goal by destroying Iran’s surface military facilities. But in reality, Israel will face ongoing attacks from Iran and Shia groups, with many cities suffering heavy damage.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will fracture global supply chains. When oil prices stay above $110, how will the global industrial system operate? It will continue, but at enormous costs and uncertainties. During high inflation, ordinary people and the middle class will suffer most. Past bull markets may turn out to be illusions.

In times of war, the poetry and distant dreams of AI become luxuries; energy, food, and resources are the real essentials. The beautiful narratives are fading; humanity must face a more pragmatic, urgent world. Investors must confront a high-volatility era filled with tail risks—past asset bubbles may be just illusions.

Stagflation has arrived. Don’t expect massive monetary easing to protect nominal wealth. When gold begins to collapse, it signals market panic and despair. Gold isn’t oil or food; it cannot guarantee basic survival needs. Narratives create bubbles, and bubbles are easily shattered.

In the face of war narratives, everything becomes fragile. War stories can crush the best monetary and technological narratives.

But don’t be overly pessimistic. First, war is part of human civilization—history itself is a history of war. Our warlike nature has been embedded since the hunter-gatherer days over 100,000 years ago. The Industrial Revolution transformed but did not eliminate tragedies like WWI and WWII. War has shaped civilizations, driving technological revolutions and peace orders. Second, human civilization and the resilience of the global market will gradually repair resource supply chains—when the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and oil prices soar, more traders will risk profiteering, restoring some supply. Third, circumstances often override will—when continuous disasters and despair threaten both sides, negotiations will eventually happen. Not only Trump, but Iran will also weigh the costs.

Even in a high-intensity war like Russia-Ukraine, oil prices spiked initially but then eased; markets recovered and entered a new bull phase. Gold, after a sharp correction, entered a super bull market. Investors only need patience to endure short-term shocks. There are great opportunities amid crises. Good assets remain good assets.

For China, this war is a short-term pain—A-shares investors will pay the price—but in the long run, it may be beneficial. We should reassess the value of China’s peaceful civilization. Despite two major wars, China, as the world’s second-largest economy and a major industrial power, has avoided being dragged into conflict and has enjoyed peace dividends. If China continues to uphold peaceful development, it will likely continue to benefit from “Peace Dividend 2.0.”

In this era of great conflicts, peace remains the most scarce resource.

Therefore, we reevaluate the value of the entire East Asian civilization zone. As always, I remain optimistic about East Asia’s peace and industrial civilization. The logic of China’s capital market bull run will not be halted by the Middle East war; what’s needed now is to digest the panic.

The war has begun, the graveyard of empires is laid bare, and within the ruins of civilizations, new blooms are emerging. This is a tragedy for all humanity. Who will ring the death knell? It’s for each of us. Humanity is one body.