Bulls and Bears Face Liquidation Countdown! 72000 Is the Critical Watershed—Can the Bulls Hold Up Against the "Rate Hike + Geopolitical" Double Impact?

Last night, BTC touched 72000, just enough to liquidate the longs near that level. Now it’s back to grinding around 71000. Our long position at 70600 yesterday was precisely taken profit at 72000—exited perfectly.

The current market is extremely narrow, but don’t rush—big moves are coming! On the news front, US-Iran negotiations are full of smoke screens. The White House wants to negotiate, while Iran is demanding five major conditions to hardball. Market expectations for a ceasefire are only 14%, and geopolitical risks remain high.

Meanwhile, Japan’s 2-year government bond yields have surged to a 30-year high, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 64%. Rising oil prices are pushing inflation higher, effectively extinguishing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global liquidity tightening is heating up, putting pressure on risk assets.

Summary view: Geopolitical conflicts are supporting oil prices, inflation remains sticky, and central bank tightening expectations are increasing. In the short term, BTC is unlikely to trend upward strongly, with sentiment leaning cautious. Technically, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price repeatedly encounters resistance at 72000, with overhead pressure at 74000. The key support at 71400 has already broken, and the price is currently oscillating around the MA lines. RSI is near 53, MFI at 46.33, with insufficient buying momentum and a cold capital sentiment.

Below support at 68000. If broken, it will test the Bollinger lower band near 68146.

Summary view: The 4-hour chart shows weak oscillation, with 72000 acting as the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. Failing to break through will lead to a pullback to support, with the short-term direction unclear but downward pressure increasing.

Trading strategy: Range-bound high selling and low buying—long near 70500, short near 72000, with strict position control.

Personal opinion: The current market is “hot externally, cold internally”—geopolitical conflicts look lively on the surface, but the liquidity layer is digesting the tightening expectations. BTC struggling to move higher at this level is a hidden risk. If 72000 cannot hold, be cautious of another test of lows.

Short-term trading is fine, but don’t be greedy, don’t chase, stay cautious. #BTC