UBS Wealth Management: Geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-25T19:24:09+00:00

UBS Wealth Management noted that geopolitical conflicts have refocused attention on the commodities market, particularly gold. Despite recent declines in gold prices, geopolitical risks and changes in Federal Reserve interest rates are expected to support higher gold prices. Looking ahead to 2026, UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on commodities, emphasizing investment opportunities in energy, agricultural products, and precious metals.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-25 19:24:09

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Source: Shanghai Securities News · China Securities Journal

Shanghai Securities News (Reporter Wang Youruo) — On March 20, UBS Wealth Management Investment Chief Office (CIO) stated that the current geopolitical conflicts have refocused investors on the commodities market, making gold trends a market focus. Recently, concerns over rising inflation and the Federal Reserve slowing its rate cut pace have caused gold prices to decline significantly. Investors are now questioning why the Middle East crisis has not further driven gold prices higher.

UBS Wealth Management believes that geopolitical uncertainties, ongoing central bank buying, and investor demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. The recent pause in gold price gains is consistent with early stages of previous geopolitical crises — investors typically first focus on liquidity and hedging tools before returning to the gold market. As geopolitical risks persist and U.S. real interest rates decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets, gold prices are expected to reach new highs again this year.

Looking ahead to 2026, UBS Wealth Management is optimistic about the overall outlook for commodities. Structural trends such as supply and demand imbalances, energy transition, and global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure development will drive strong returns in commodities. The firm is moderately overweight in energy, as shipping disruptions may temporarily push prices higher; also overweight in agricultural products, as high fossil fuel prices could increase demand for biofuels, and rising fertilizer costs will put upward pressure on prices; additionally, allocations in precious metals are also above benchmark levels.

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