Institutions Await Sector Inflection Point as Penghua Nonferrous Metal ETF Attracts 132 Million in 5 Days

Why do institutions recommend waiting for the stagflation negative feedback to peak?

The non-ferrous metals sector experienced volatility and adjustments today. Institutions point out: 1. Inflation concerns: Rising crude oil prices have sparked inflation worries, significantly delaying the Fed’s rate cut expectations. 2. Strong dollar suppression: The short-term strengthening of the dollar has pressured and weakened commodities priced in USD. 3. Profit-taking: Previously, the non-ferrous sector saw significant gains driven by super-cycle expectations, with maximum increases exceeding 30% in 2026, leading to intensified capital games and short-term profit-taking.

Institutions believe that now is the time to wait for the stagflation negative feedback to peak: 1. In the short term, the widespread misjudgment of non-ferrous metals during stagflation trading will likely occur, and it is necessary to observe whether conflicts fully clarify the situation. However, the long-term bullish trend in non-ferrous metals still requires the stagflation negative feedback to peak. 2. In the medium to long term, the underlying logic supporting the non-ferrous industry remains unchanged. On one hand, domestic re-industrialization and the expansion of advantageous capacity overseas are broadening growth prospects for non-ferrous companies; on the other hand, intensified global resource country competition has highlighted the strategic importance of key minerals like copper and aluminum, with supply-side constraints providing a foundation for industry prosperity.

As of 15:00 on March 19, 2026, regarding the constituent stocks of the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395), the top decliners include Industrial Bank Silver-Tin (-8.59%), Chihong Zinc & Ge (-8.41%), Luoyang Molybdenum (-8.04%), CICC Gold (-7.80%), Huashi Non-Ferrous (-7.61%). The latest quote for the Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) is 1.99 yuan.

In terms of liquidity, the Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF had a turnover rate of 6.82% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan. Looking at a longer timeframe, as of March 19, the average daily trading volume over the past month was 86.21 million yuan. The latest net capital inflow for the ETF is 32.55 million yuan. Over the past five trading days, a total of 132 million yuan has flowed into the fund, with an average daily net inflow of 26.42 million yuan.

The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which is based on the industry classification standards of the China Securities Index. It selects 50 securities with prominent size and liquidity within the non-ferrous metals industry, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, providing a targeted index investment option for market segmentation.

Data shows that as of February 27, 2026, the top ten holdings of the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) are Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, CICC Gold, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Industrial Bank Silver-Tin, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 48.78% of the index weight.

The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) is available through over-the-counter connections (A: 021296; C: 021297; I: 022886).