Danger Signal? Nasdaq Breaks Down + Rate Cut Hopes Dashed: Is This Rally Not Over Yet?

This battle has already sent a “danger signal” to the market!

Recently, the market’s vibe has actually been a bit off.

To summarize in one sentence: 👉 Macroeconomic expectations are worsening + technicals are breaking down + geopolitical risks are rising

Let’s look at each one—

1. Nasdaq: Volatile for 5 months, starting to choose a direction (and it’s downward)

First, focus on the core of the US stock market—the Nasdaq Composite Index.

Yesterday opened lower, with a low of directly hitting 21,800 points, officially breaking below the previous trading range lower boundary of 22,000 points.

Although it recovered to close at 22,090, the problem is:

This level has been tested twice as support and ultimately broken through.

What does this mean?

• Since October
• Nearly 5 months of sideways consolidation
• The market has been “waiting for a direction”

And now:

👉 The direction is likely already set—downward

Once this “long-term consolidation followed by a breakdown” is confirmed, the subsequent trend is often not just a small correction but a trend-level move.

2. Federal Reserve: The market’s biggest “expectation anchor” is starting to loosen

Next, look at the most critical macro variable—the Federal Reserve.

In the March 18 rate decision:

• Interest rates were held steady (as expected)
• But market reaction was very poor

👉 The three major indices (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P) all fell over 1% 👉 Gold mining stocks saw a significant pullback

The real issue isn’t whether there will be rate hikes, but:

👉 The market’s expectation of “rate cuts” has collapsed

From the dot plot:

• Probability of rate cuts this year: about 15%
• Probability of no cuts: close to 80%

And the market consensus at the start of the year was: At least 2-3 rate cuts

What does this mean now? Liquidity expectations have been greatly diminished

Adding one more point:

• US stocks are already at high levels
• Valuations are fully priced in

If the Fed doesn’t cut rates: the market will have to deflate its own bubbles.

3. If US stocks pull back, BTC will likely not escape

Let’s do a simple projection:

• If Nasdaq drops 10% (about 2,000 points, down to 20,000)
• Based on historical correlation

👉 Bitcoin is very likely to fall 20% - 30%

In other words:

👉 BTC could return to around $49,000

This is a psychologically difficult level for many, but logically, it’s not unreasonable.

4. Geopolitical conflicts: the biggest uncertain variable

The third variable is the hardest to predict—geopolitics.

Initially, when the US assassinated Qasem Soleimani in a single day, it was thought to be a lightning-fast “blitz” like in Venezuela. But Iran proved to be a resilient opponent, launching over 60 military operations.

On March 20, Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee spokesperson Ibrahimi Rezaei stated:

• Iran has no negotiations planned
• The ceasefire claims are false information spread by the US to control energy prices

The US has not shown any signs of easing either. As the world’s top military power, how could they easily back down? Just look at Trump’s previous boast of “We’ve won big”—it shows they won’t admit defeat easily.

This means: No signs of de-escalation in the short term

If the conflict continues:

👉 Oil prices will rise → inflation will rebound → Fed will be even more reluctant to cut rates

This creates a deadly feedback loop:

War → Inflation → No rate cuts → Asset declines

But there’s also a “reverse logic”:

• The US doesn’t want oil prices to be too high
• Iran relies heavily on oil revenue

👉 Both sides are actually reluctant to prolong the standoff.

So, this conflict is likely to be a “repeated tug-of-war,” not a quick resolution.

5. The real issue: collective downward revision of expectations

Markets are fundamentally about “trading expectations.”

And the current issues are:

• Expectations of rate cuts ↓
• Expectations of geopolitical stability ↓
• Expectations of inflation control ↓

Adding to that:

• AI-driven layoffs
• Potential deterioration of employment data

👉 Once these variables resonate: The Fed will likely keep rates steady, and the macro environment of 2026 could be quite unfriendly.

6. BTC’s dilemma: not yet truly “independent”

Many have been asking: Will Bitcoin break free and move independently?

The reality is: Not yet

The reasons are simple:

• Liquidity is still controlled by the Fed
• Risk appetite is still driven by US stocks

So: If US stocks falter, BTC will find it hard to stand alone

7. But the last point is the most important

If you think in “coin-based terms,” the logic is completely different:

• The US dollar is continuously being printed
• Global currencies are experiencing inflation

And Bitcoin: Total supply is forever capped at 21 million

So, the real question isn’t: “Will the price fall?”

It’s: “Has the amount of coins in your hands changed?”