Not enough to eat? Prediction market giants eye payment and AI's big pie

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Time is running out for traditional gambling companies, and this may be the latest consensus in predicting market tracks.

At the recently concluded Oscars ceremony, Kalshi and Polymarket’s total betting funds first surpassed $100 million, whereas last year this figure was less than ten million dollars. On the other side, Kalshi partnered with Cash App to connect user payment channels; after launching the AI Agent CLI application, Polymarket now supports AgentCard, powered by Alchemy, enabling AI Agents to trade 24/7. Living through 2026—a year full of historic moments—the prediction market duopoly is vying for new users in their own way, competing with traditional bookmakers, internet platforms, and even traditional media and finance industries. This time, their primary targets are genuine payment channel users and tireless AI Agents.

New Victories for Prediction Market Giants: Payment Channels and AI Agent Users

Last week, renowned investment firm Paradigm released its first annual survey report, which is also its first prediction market platform survey.

The results show that over one-third (about 36%) of American voters have used prediction markets—either participating in bets or browsing markets for information.

Regarding user demographics, 66% of prediction market users are under 50 years old, with 20% aged 18–34 and 27% aged 35–49; non-white voters are slightly more active in prediction markets than white voters, and men are significantly more active than women (46% vs. 31%).

From this, it’s clear that prediction markets in the U.S. are no longer a niche—rather, they are a vital source of information, trading platform, and news pool for many households.

Of course, as the lead investor in Kalshi’s recent $1 billion funding round, Paradigm’s move is undoubtedly a “shout out for his bag,” which is understandable. But this survey also reveals a new question—how can the prediction market duopoly of Kalshi and Polymarket penetrate the remaining 64% of American voters and the entire U.S. population?

The answer is: either fight the old forces or seek new growth.

Kalshi’s New Growth Strategy: Connecting Payment Channels to Encourage Deposits

From March 2 to March 8, Kalshi’s trading volume first exceeded 20 million trades, setting a weekly record since its inception. With trading volume and trade count continuously hitting new highs, if they want to go further, tapping into existing user pools is undoubtedly a more efficient approach.

This is likely why Kalshi announced last week its partnership with Block’s payment app Cash App. Kalshi’s official statement was even more direct—“Make funding your Kalshi account easier with Cash App Pay.” The message practically reads: “Quickly fund your account with Cash App Pay and start betting.”

After all, even if only 1% of the 59 million monthly active Cash App users convert, it would bring nearly 600,000 new users to Kalshi—more than their efforts over the past two or three years. More importantly, these are all “incremental cakes.”

Polymarket’s Market Expansion: Not Just Humans, AI Agents Are Also Targets

On the other side of the prediction market, Polymarket, as one of the duopoly, is also performing strongly.

Since resuming operations in the U.S. last November, as of March 14, Polymarket’s nominal trading volume in the U.S. exceeded $750 million, with over 5 million trades. Previously, the platform’s open contracts once reached $2.6 million, but recently fell back to around $1 million.

Additionally, according to Dune data, since imposing trading fees on certain markets (including NCAA and crypto rise and fall markets) starting January 6, Polymarket has collected over $11.2 million in fees. In other words, Polymarket has fully validated its revenue-generating capability.

Therefore, the ambitious Polymarket is no longer content with just human users; it has begun betting on supporting AI Agents to trade 24/7.

Last weekend, crypto payment platform Alchemy officially launched the AI Agent Payment Platform AgentCard. Besides standard payment functions like food delivery and AI app subscriptions, it emphasizes that “your AI Agent can now trade on Polymarket 24/7”; this message was subsequently retweeted and confirmed by Polymarket’s official account.

Against the backdrop of OpenClaw’s “Lobster” explosion, and the support of AI Agent payments by protocols like x402, ERC8004, and ERC8183, a prediction market platform supporting querying market data, executing orders, managing positions, and interacting with on-chain contracts—designed specifically for AI Agents—is gradually taking shape.

Like Circle, which elegantly transformed from a “stablecoin issuer” into “financial infrastructure for the AI era,” Polymarket has already seized the critical ecological niche of “prediction markets for AI Agents.” As Nvidia founder Jensen Huang said at last year’s CES, the AI Agent industry will become a trillion-dollar track like the robotics industry, and 24/7 AI Agents may shine first in prediction markets.

Conclusion: The New War in Prediction Markets Has Begun

Undoubtedly, a new battle for prediction markets has quietly started, involving deep engagement of existing users, continuous incentives for active users, and ongoing conversion of new users; it also includes extending the boundaries of betting events, communication with regulators, and future-oriented development targeting “potential active users” like AI Agents.

Previously, Dingaling, founder of BSC ecosystem prediction platform Predict.fun, planned to launch products combining prediction markets and DeFi, offering users interest income from account funds—an alternative “PayFi yield product,” which is worth looking forward to.

Regardless of how prediction markets develop, Kalshi and Polymarket have already unlocked new growth leverage in their pursuit of $2 billion or more in funding.