Having a good read on the market can actually make it easier to lose money sometimes.

The more accurate you are at judging major trends, the easier it is to fall into "God's perspective" bias.

When you're right, you tend to increase your positions aggressively while ignoring uncertain risks.

When you're wrong, you hold onto short-term positions you've added to and refuse to cut losses, thus overlooking the damage caused by short-term volatility, which only worsens your losses.

So knowing is not impressive—actually doing it is what matters.