26.3.16. High-level Emotional Flow Review and Expectation Discrepancy

1. [Taogu Ba]
   Before reading, please click the like button in the lower right corner. Once it reaches 1,000 likes, I will post the next article.
   Still the same, the main post won’t say too much about the internal modes.
   But it’s just about market expectations and trend judgments.
   It’s also one of a kind in the market; with ultra-short fundamentals, I can barely understand it.
   Of course, I don’t expect everyone to understand. The top-tier logic always serves only the 5% of the market.
   Here I just throw a brick to attract jade; if 5% can see it, that’s enough. Other flashy strategies and modes have nothing to do with me.
   -----
   The main post will resume updates starting this week.
   Putting logic and predictions in the comments is too scattered and inconvenient for reviewing the entire market cycle.
   Daily comments and programs will still be in the evening video segment. The main post will be a periodic review + future expectations.
   Today’s article is roughly divided into two parts: 1. Review, 2. Some miscellaneous ideas.

2. Logic

First, extend the timeline and then summarize recent days.
Before the market peak, after the main post, the overall market didn’t have much fluctuation.
After participating in Zhejiang Wenlian from 1.21 to 2.5, the market didn’t show any other bright directions afterward.
On 2.27, I mentioned Huasheng and Yunei with clear signals; Huasheng’s signal was about hardware recognition of mining power, and Yunei was a clear signal to compete with Kelaiji Mechanical and Electrical.
But because quantification kept testing this recognition, and the overall guidance was slightly lacking, the results were quite bumpy.
Without consensus, there’s no new liquidity, so the core recognition trend during this phase was just oscillation.
This cannot reach a high level.

Looking back at recent days, there are a few major events.
Since Huasheng broke down on 3.12 last week, early signs appeared.
By 3.13, the computing power completely collapsed.

Think about it: on 3.3, Huasheng’s bottom was mentioned as a point of interest.
That day’s bottom was reached, and even with no movement on 3.12 and 3.13, it should have been positive feedback.
If the outcome was wrong, it indicates there was a problem with the operation process.
Why do some have negative costs, while others have negative returns?

If wrong, it boils down to two points:

1. Rhythm, 2. Degree of action.
   Initially, when it was time to act, they didn’t dare to, then later went all in.
   Isn’t this contradicting the signals?
   -----
   Let’s talk about electricity.
   A few key stocks worth mentioning in the main post are GCL-Poly, Green Power, China Power, and China Electric Power Construction.
   GCL-Poly was mentioned as an electricity anchor point on the evening of 3.10. What was said that day?
   Electricity can’t be viewed through sodium, as sodium runs on independent electricity calculations, meaning there are some funds operating independently inside.
   They drew the chart themselves.
   Can market manipulation represent public sentiment? Market mood?
   No.
   It can only guide sentiment at a certain moment, but it’s not the result of market sentiment.
   GCL-Poly was on 3.11.
   So, the best solution on 3.11 was to mimic quantification, laying out all electricity anchor points.
   The result was left to the market; if it failed, so be it. At that time, besides Huasheng, Yunei, and electricity, there were no other directions.
   The anchor point on 3.11 was still GCL-Poly, and on 3.12, the electricity anchor point switched to Green Power.
   Why?
   Because at that time, Green Power and China Power were positioning, and as long as their positioning wasn’t completely dead, the electricity sector still had expectations to continue.
   Both advanced on that day, so Friday’s electricity sector could ferment widely.
   The expectation progressed step by step, understand?
   The anchor point on Friday moved to China Electric Power Construction, whose performance continued to raise expectations for the entire sector, leading to the current trend.
   Logic and expectations are interconnected.

3. Market + Anchor Points

First, see what happened today.
After the bidding ended, China Electric Power Construction, as an electricity anchor point, bid aggressively and opened below water.
Meanwhile, Green Power and China Power were still positioning (not to say that the positioning relationship disappears once broken), but the opening performance and support of China Electric Power Construction directly caused the entire electricity sector to collapse.
From GCL-Poly to Green Power and China Power, all were doing well, but when it came to China Electric Power Construction, the expected performance was not met, so the sector’s outlook sharply turned negative.
Super-short funds react extremely quickly.
So today, the opening word for electricity was just one: core.

And what about computing power?
Last Friday, the entire sector broke down collectively.
If the market wanted to rescue computing power directly today, pulling Ningbo and Meiliyun would be too obvious? There’s also heavy selling pressure.
So, they might use expectation differences.
That’s also why an additional Yan Shan was added as an anchor, because brain-machine + computing power still has decent recognition.
Of course, it’s likely not to work, so today was just a quick scan.
It didn’t succeed today, but those “within expectations” anchors, Ningbo and Meiliyun, also performed weakly.
Even weaker.

So, if you want to understand the market the next day, you need to think ahead about many unexpected expectation differences.
These differences can exist anywhere.
But the problem is, for example, you think of ten directions, but only two or three actually play out the next day—that’s good.
If the market is off, none will happen.
So, you need to overlay some dynamic decision-making skills in market monitoring, which is why I always emphasize dynamic market observation.
When the market is good, you don’t need to think about expectation differences.
When the market is bad, that’s when you need to think more.

5. Expectations

What should you think about tomorrow?

1. Today’s electricity is last Friday’s computing power. Based on the expectation difference from last week, what is the expected direction for electricity tomorrow? What about sodium?
2. Is there a subtle change in the relationship between micro-cap stocks and capacity stocks? Where is it reflected on the chart?
3. Try to construct tomorrow’s sentiment and sector anchors, and I’ll reveal the answers tonight.

Some of these ideas have answers; some are open-ended, but they are the most critical points on the chart.
So, whether or not there are answers, think about these questions first.

6. Easter Egg

Actually, losses can be divided into two types.
One is losing without knowing how, which still requires patience and accumulation.
The other is understanding the market but unable to change it, which is helplessness.
For this, you can check out the Goddess Festival activity comments on @Taogu Activities to improve your mood.
The market won’t disappear, but good times don’t last forever.

7. Who didn’t like the main post after reading?