When oil at $200?

At the start of the war, Brent briefly reached $120, then pulled back on expectations of de-escalation. Now it’s trading around $103, and the main question is — why aren’t the $150–200 forecasts playing out?

▪️ The Strait of Hormuz isn’t effectively blocked. China, the top buyer, continues receiving Iranian oil.
▪️ The market is betting on a “short” war. The consensus is that $TRUMP will wrap up the conflict by late March–April, before his approval collapses
▪️ The issue is logistics, not infrastructure. Key facilities are being largely spared, allowing for relatively quick recovery.
▪️ There was an oil surplus before the war. Even in a prolonged conflict, other regions can compensate for lost output.
▪️ Demand is more flexible than before. If prices spike sharply, countries are more likely to cut consumption than endlessly overpay.

The $150 scenario remains possible, but it would likely accelerate a return to balance.

We might be witnessing one of the last times oil trades above $100 in the long term