【Vegetable Oil Weekly Report】ICE Rapeseed at High Levels, Australian Rapeseed Exports Remain Slow

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Source: CFC Commodity Strategy Research

Author | CITIC Construction Investment Futures Research & Development Department, Shi Lihong

Research Assistant | Tu Biao

Futures Trading Consultation Qualification: Securities Permit [2011] No. 1461

Report Completion Date | March 15, 2026

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This week, geopolitical sentiment remains dominant. Dubai rapeseed & rapeseed meal and Indian rapeseed logistics themes boost bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil sector. Coupled with soybean shipment expectations and the anticipated implementation of the US RVO, the oilseed and oil sector is trending stronger. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in international rapeseed prices and the pace of domestic oil mills’ rapeseed crushing recovery.

ICE Rapeseed Breaks Higher, Focus on Origin Supply

Recently, ICE rapeseed prices have continued to rise, mainly driven by geopolitical factors and the upcoming US RVO implementation. The main ICE contract has approached 740 CAD/ton, significantly higher than the same period in 2025. We understand that current rapeseed prices in Canada are providing sufficient profit margins for local sellers, and recent data shows an improvement in cumulative supply. Currently, over 12 million tons of rapeseed have been shipped, but there is still about 8 million tons of potential supply from the total production of 20 million tons that has not yet been reflected. As supply from producing regions recovers, attention should be given to whether Canadian crushing and export demand can match this.

Canadian Rapeseed Valuation Mainly Supported by Crushing Demand

Currently, Canadian rapeseed exports for 2025/26 have reached 4.59 million tons, about 72% of the same period in history, showing some improvement month-over-month. We believe that with the resumption of China-Canada rapeseed procurement, the total export volume could recover to over 80% of the 24/25 level, but reaching the AAFC-estimated annual export target of 8.2 million tons remains challenging. On the other hand, Canadian crushing demand remains strong, with cumulative crushing reaching 6.05 million tons by January 25, 2026, maintaining monthly crushings above 1 million tons, and the likelihood of total crushings exceeding 12.5 million tons is high. We believe that the current relatively high valuation of Canadian rapeseed is mainly supported by high crush margins, i.e., the potential import demand for US rapeseed oil, which partly offsets the supply pressure from lower cumulative exports.

Canadian Rapeseed’s International Export Competitiveness Has Declined Compared to Australian Rapeseed

In other words, the key to monitoring Canadian rapeseed valuation is whether US RVO policies can be implemented smoothly and whether Canadian rapeseed oil can meet export expectations to the US. From the perspective of direct rapeseed exports, recent international competitiveness of Canadian rapeseed has clearly declined compared to Australian rapeseed. In the EU rapeseed FOB market, the premium of Canadian over Australian rapeseed has exceeded $35/ton and is roughly on par with Ukrainian rapeseed, losing competitiveness.

Australian Rapeseed Exports Remain Slow

We understand that Australia is currently the most pressured supplier among major global rapeseed exporters. After the resumption of China-Canada procurement, Australian rapeseed has lost potential export markets. The EU’s total import volume for the crop year is expected to be only about 60% of the 24/25 level, and the outlook for Australian rapeseed exports has dimmed. As of February 2026, Australian rapeseed exports for 2025/26 are estimated at 2.52 million tons, down 80,000 tons year-over-year. Despite an increase of over 1 million tons in this crop year, the export situation remains challenging.

Geopolitical Premium Still Exists; Domestic Supply Recovery Will Take Time

However, under the premise that commercial procurement of Australian rapeseed cannot be relaxed, the potential valuation pressure from international Australian rapeseed is unlikely to be reflected in the domestic market. Coupled with short-term logistical issues in Dubai, domestic valuation remains anchored to Canadian rapeseed. We understand that until geopolitical issues are fully alleviated and the US soybean meal bullish logic exhausts itself, Canadian rapeseed will likely remain volatile and somewhat strong, indicating limited downside for domestic oilseed and oilmeal prices. It is expected that after the import crush margins of Canadian rapeseed approach zero, strong support will form. On the other hand, domestic rapeseed arrivals are expected to be strong, but current crushing activity remains at its lowest level in the same period. Supply is expected to recover quickly starting in April, implying that supply constraints for the May contract still exist.

Overall, macro sentiment continues to suppress micro indicators. The vegetable oil and meal sector will fluctuate around geopolitical, soybean meal, and logistics issues, likely maintaining a volatile but somewhat bullish trend. Specifically, we favor opportunities to buy on dips in the 5-9 price spread of vegetable oil and meal.