Positive Signals Accumulate as Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate Markets Brew a "Minor Spring"

Reporter Wu Jiaming from Securities Times

In early spring March, the real estate market often experiences a wave of warming sentiment known as “Golden March and Silver April.” Whether this year’s “small spring” market arrives as expected has become a focus of market attention.

In response, our reporter visited markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and found that behind the stabilization and rebound in transaction data, an increasing number of homebuyers are beginning to restore their expectations for the market. The “small spring” is brewing.

Reasonable prices and suitable products are key

“Driven by the high-price transaction of the Ma Chang plot in Tianhe, Guangzhou, recent viewing and transaction volumes have increased. Last weekend, nearly 150 groups of clients visited the project, and the company directly offered price concessions to support the ‘small spring,’” said a marketing manager of a new residential project in Tianhe North District. According to incomplete statistics, in early March alone, more than 30 new residential projects in Guangzhou launched new listings or had promotional activities.

Recently, the highly anticipated Ma Chang plot in Tianhe was sold for a total of 23.6 billion yuan, acquired by Guangzhou Yuechengda Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Yuexiu Group, with a premium rate of 26.6%. As the planning of the Ma Chang plot advances, land values in the core area are being re-priced by the market. Recently, the luxury housing market in Guangzhou has also stirred again. Market information shows that Poly Yuexi Bay sold a property with a building area of 670 square meters for a total of 187 million yuan, equivalent to about 280,000 yuan per square meter. Our reporter also interviewed marketing personnel from several real estate companies. The luxury products, such as large flats and villas in Guangzhou, have all recorded recent transactions.

According to a report from Zhongyuan Research and Development Department in Guangzhou, after the Spring Festival holiday, new projects entered the market intensively. Driven by several “hot” projects, the market is likely to see a “good start,” with a concentrated opening period expected from March to April. Many of these projects are located in core urban areas, mainly offering improved housing products, which have certain market appeal and are expected to boost transaction recovery. Meanwhile, marketing managers of several new projects in Guangzhou told us that pricing will be more aligned with actual market transaction levels. Only with reasonable prices and suitable products are homebuyers willing to enter the market.

Confidence begins to restore

In Shenzhen, the second-hand housing market seems to be more lively than new homes. Last week, the second-hand signing volume at Le Youjia stores in Shenzhen increased by 132% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2025; viewing volume for second-hand homes also hit the highest since mid-October 2024.

According to the latest monitoring data released by Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, in February this year, the number of second-hand homes listed at partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. “This seemingly small percentage change reflects a gradual increase in market confidence, and irrational selling phenomena are decreasing,” said Xiao Xiaoping, director of Shenzhen Shell Research Institute. This change is expected to promote Shenzhen’s real estate market into a virtuous cycle of “supply optimization—expectation strengthening—price stabilization.” This means the market is easing from the previous pressure of “oversupply” caused by sellers rushing to cash out, with more rational listing prices providing a healthier foundation for market bottoming and recovery. Additionally, in terms of prices, besides the continued stabilization of average transaction prices for new homes over two months, the average listing price of hot second-hand communities has also begun to rise slightly.

“Since March, the most obvious recovery has been in high-quality school district homes, followed by second-hand homes with low total prices and high rental yields,” said Chen, a senior agent in Yuanling, Futian District, Shenzhen. “Currently, transaction prices haven’t changed much; price-to-volume trading remains mainstream. But after several years of decline, more buyers are starting to regain confidence in the market this year. For example, more clients proactively contact us to view homes after the holiday than in previous years.”

“After the Lunar New Year, Shenzhen’s real estate market quickly resumed trading, with a better response than in previous years. Our statistics show that this year, the speed of new home launches is slower than last year—only nine new residential projects received pre-sale permits so far, compared to twelve at the same time last year. Therefore, the scale effect in Shenzhen’s new home market is difficult to form this year. Conversely, the second-hand market remains well-supplied and low-priced, with a significantly better trading atmosphere,” said He Qianru, director of the National Research Center at Midland Realty. “Additionally, from policy expectations, further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen is also highly likely.”

Still requiring joint efforts

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, recent performance in Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s markets has been positive. “First, second-hand homes outperform new homes; the hot spots in the new home market are limited to certain districts. Second, the growth rate of newly listed second-hand homes has decreased month-on-month and declined year-on-year, indicating improving market sentiment and expectations. Third, the continuous improvement in the second-hand market has, to some extent, driven demand for selling old homes and buying new ones, creating a better market cycle.”

He predicts that March is a traditional peak sales season, with strong transactions driven by post-holiday return, marriage, job seeking, and school enrollment needs. Developers will also launch cost-effective products to pursue a good start for the year. Local governments are expected to take policy actions, such as recent frequent policies on housing provident funds and purchase subsidies, creating a “small peak” in the market in March. However, in terms of transaction structure, low-priced properties still dominate.

According to Centaline Research Institute, based on the China Real Estate Index System’s hundred-city price index, since 2026, the month-on-month decline in second-hand residential prices across hundred cities has been narrowing, showing positive signs. As more cities further implement policies, the “small spring” market is worth looking forward to.

Li Yujia believes that to bottom out and stabilize, multiple parties need to work together. Industry efforts include promoting transaction cycles for both first- and second-hand homes, continuing to reduce transaction costs, and purifying the trading environment and order. The fundamentals involve restoring residents’ confidence in employment, income, and expectations.

(Edited by: Zhang Xiaobo)

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