Equities look horrible for the first time in a long time.


If you model the average mid-term year performance which also correlates with the crypto "bear market year" then this is going to be brutal (with the catalysts apparent for the first time in decades)
Pattern aligns with 2022 overall but the key difference is the Fed was going to cut at least 2-3 times this year instead of having uncontrollable inflation and being forced to hike aggressively. Tariffs did not show up inflation to the degree everyone expected but the oil crisis right now sort of implies to me that we will end up getting that correction as early as the next few weeks anyway
The only difference I can think of is that tech valuations don't seem *that* crazy to me and I don't think AI is in a valuation bubble yet. Overall think equities have a very real chance of tanking hard given the data and correlations but crypto can front-run that bottom
Key insight: Unlike 2022, I think people will have less time to buy at good prices
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