March 13 Review Notes

Today, the index surged significantly in the afternoon, and indeed dropped to 1% during the session. As I mentioned yesterday, it reached 1%, and the index really showed some face today. But this morning, the market looked dead, maintaining a volatile sideways trend, so I was too lazy to watch in the afternoon. However, in the afternoon, it started to weaken, so I didn’t watch then either. I didn’t reduce my holdings, but it was okay because it recovered back to 1% after dropping, and didn’t continue falling until the close. So today, whether you reduced your position or not doesn’t matter much. Actually, the funds are just worried about the uncertain weekend. Whether the decline stops next week depends on how the weekend news develops. Also, I chose to reduce my holdings to have enough chips to add more after the index continues to pull back. But I can’t predict whether the index will rise or fall next week, so everyone should decide for themselves. I personally like to trade frequently during volatile times—buying low and selling high whenever opportunities arise. But I’m not always right; sometimes I sell and it then surges, missing out on gains. So don’t just follow my lead blindly. Currently, the normal market operation is to hold onto your stocks well because one wrong move could lead to selling at a loss or chasing highs, resulting in a total loss. Often, holding steady is better than constantly trading, especially for beginners.

Regarding individual stocks, I’ll pick some updates. [Taogu Ba]
Huaming Equipment: I mentioned yesterday that there are two short-term support levels. The first is 32.5; if it breaks below, it’s likely to fill the gap below. The second support is at the 31.5 gap. I also said that if the gap is filled in the short term, I would definitely add to my position. Today, I added at the 31.5 level after revisiting the gap. The intraday movement was as expected—revisiting the gap to fill it, which is a safer move. Filling the gap doesn’t mean the stock won’t continue to decline in the short term, because revisiting the gap is a high-probability event, especially after a 9% drop yesterday. Today, the market sentiment likely still favors a pullback, so filling the gap remains probable. The current support below is at 29.5. If next week the price falls below 31.5 during trading, it’s likely to revisit the 29.5 support level. There’s also a small gap below 29.5; whether it will be filled depends on the trend of the power grid equipment sector. If the sector continues to decline from high levels, it’s likely to fill that gap as well, since the sector is currently at a high position. Please consider these points as reference only; decisions should be based on your own capital, holding period, and stop-loss points. I may not be correct all the time.

Boyuan Chemical: Currently, Boyuan is in a high-level consolidation phase. If next week it breaks below the 9 yuan support, the trend will turn downward, likely returning to around 8 yuan. But as long as it stays above 9 yuan, it’s just normal high-level consolidation.

Additionally, I want to reiterate my view that I am not optimistic about all stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector. I don’t favor this sector, including rare metals, because although rare metals are also non-ferrous metals, I exclude rare earths from this view. Rare earths have already retraced to their previous consolidation zone and have led the sector’s decline. The strategic importance of rare earths is different from other non-ferrous metals. Rare earths are controlled by us globally, whereas many other non-ferrous metals are dominated by other countries because the mines are outside our control. The refining and industrial chain of rare earths are the most complete here, so if you didn’t sell at high levels, now that the sector has returned to support levels, reducing your position is no longer meaningful. Just watch the support level; as long as it doesn’t break below, there’s no need to worry. The current market is driven by news sentiment, which can trigger a wave of gains with each news release. When the next set of news hits other sectors, the previous gains may gradually fade as funds chase the news. Fund withdrawals and corrections are normal. That’s why recent markets are hard to trade—after a news-driven rally lasting 2-3 days, a big correction often follows quickly. If you don’t sell, the next day’s decline could start to cause losses. That’s the pattern. So, there’s no clear main line in the current market. The key is to buy high and sell low at the right times. If you don’t do this, you risk missing profits or losing money after holding on for a few more days.