Analysts: Market Expects Oil Price Surge from Iran War May Prompt Some Central Banks to Raise Rates

SmartContractAuditor · 2026-03-13T10:41:26+00:00

Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny pointed out that an Iran war could lead to rising oil prices and central bank rate hikes, but would only benefit currencies of economically resilient countries. Under weak economic conditions, rate hikes are seen as negative. The Australian dollar has performed well in this context, with markets expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 basis points.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-03-13 10:41:26

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Odaily Planet Daily News: Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny stated in a report that market expectations that Iran war-induced oil price increases may prompt some central banks to raise interest rates, but this situation will only benefit currencies of economies with resilient growth. He said, “Raising interest rates in a weak economic environment is usually seen as negative for the currency.” Against the backdrop of market expectations for further rate hikes and rising energy prices potentially improving trade conditions, the Australian dollar has become one of the best-performing G10 currencies. LSEG data shows that the market currently prices in an 80% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday. (Jin10)

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