Goldman Sachs: Expects the average price of March Brent crude oil to exceed $100 per barrel; future trends will depend on the extent of shipping route disruptions.

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-13T08:36:40+00:00

Goldman Sachs expects that the average price of Brent crude in March will exceed $100 per barrel, but will decline to $85 in April, primarily affected by the Iran war and transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If the oil price disruption persists, prices could be higher by year-end. Meanwhile, the United States and other countries will release strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize the market.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-13 08:36:40

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Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to average over $100 per barrel in March, then fall back to $85 in April, due to damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure caused by the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices are expected to remain volatile.

As of Friday, May Brent crude futures were at $100.13 per barrel, up about 8% this week. On Monday, the price briefly reached $119.50 per barrel, the highest since mid-2022.

On Thursday, March 12, Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for Brent crude and WTI prices in Q4 2026, with Brent increasing from $66 to $71 per barrel, and WTI from $62 to $67.

Oil prices are closely linked to shipping disruptions

For the second half of the year, Goldman Sachs believes Brent could gradually fall to the $70s per barrel. However, if transportation disruptions last longer, prices could peak higher and remain elevated into the end of the year.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies pass through it.

Goldman Sachs’s most optimistic scenario assumes oil flows through the Strait will resume starting March 21. But the firm warns that if disruptions last two months, its Q4 Brent forecast could rise from $71 to $93 per barrel.

On Wednesday, March 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize prices. The U.S. contributed a large portion—Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm announced a release of 172 million barrels starting next week.

However, the bank believes IEA members will not release all 400 million barrels. Goldman Sachs notes that daily drawdowns from OECD strategic reserves should stay below 3 million barrels, and expects that by early June, as WTI prices are projected to fall below $70, the IEA will gradually reduce its releases.

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