# Translation

Currently, cryptocurrency prices are most heavily influenced by oil prices. Oil declines correspond with Bitcoin rises, and vice versa. Oil prices have now begun a counterattack, rebounding to nearly $100 today. Will they continue to rise? I personally think there's a high probability.

Because Iran really doesn't tolerate US behavior anymore. They've actually started laying mines in the Strait. Each mine only costs $2,000, achieving maximum returns at minimum cost. It looks like they have no intention of surrendering.

Even if the US stops on its own, Iran might continue to strangle the Strait, unless Trump apologizes. But will he?

The market's biggest surge came from Trump's statements about ceasefire and the imminent passage through the Strait, but neither materialized. Now it's clear these were just tactics to suppress oil prices. The situation hasn't actually improved. Even if oil prices don't rise further, the $90+ price is still 50% higher than the pre-war level of $60. With inflation soaring and production costs surging dramatically, the probability of US recession is increasing. So I'm not very optimistic about the coming trend.

Short-term, Bitcoin is oscillating within a small consolidation range, with support around 69,000 and resistance around 72,000. After a breakout, a new trend will form. Major resistance is at 74,000, while stronger support is around 68,000. Trading with stronger support as backing offers better odds. Small breakouts warrant stop-losses; it's worth trying.

Personally, I'm more inclined toward shorting, with targets around 72,000 and 74,000. This is worth positioning for both short-term and long-term. For longs, I'm no longer interested in the 69,000 minor support here—I've already taken two rebounds from this level. I'll only consider light long positions at 68,000 if prices drop there.