Institutions: Pay Attention to Four Investment Themes in Commercial Space

Guosheng Securities believes that although the commercial space sector has experienced short-term fluctuations, technological breakthroughs and commercialization processes are still accelerating. Therefore, investment strategies should focus on the core value chain of the industry. They recommend paying attention to four main investment themes: 1) Rockets and upstream industry chains: addressing cost constraints by targeting the key bottleneck of reducing launch costs, with a focus on breakthroughs and industrialization of reusable rocket engines, lightweight high-temperature resistant materials, and 3D printing; 2) Satellite manufacturing and core components: meeting the direct demand for constellation deployment and seizing the clear market opportunities brought by mass production of satellites, with key layouts including phased array TR components, laser communication payloads, and space energy systems; 3) Satellite communication applications and services: realizing industry value through terminal scenarios; 4) Overseas advanced industry chains: participating in SpaceX’s supply chain to share technological spillovers and market growth dividends, with priority given to upstream suppliers that have already provided stable support to top global clients.

Aijian Securities believes that: 1) As high-performance propulsion systems gradually break through, China’s commercial space industry is expected to advance along the path of “enhanced launch capacity— increased launch frequency— accelerated constellation construction,” with industry chain companies capable of manufacturing engine key components, special materials, and high-end structural parts likely to benefit first; 2) Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations are expanding rapidly, and the development of Starship V3 continues. ① SpaceX is steadily advancing the construction of the Starlink LEO satellite constellation, which currently has over 9,900 satellites in orbit, approaching 10,000, and the deployment pace is expected to accelerate. ② On March 8, the next-generation Starship V3 completed its first cryogenic test at the Texas test site, successfully achieving multiple refills and pressure tests of liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants, and verifying the structural integrity under the “chopsticks” robotic arm recovery scenario. According to Elon Musk’s disclosed plan, the V3 Starship is expected to conduct its first flight in about four weeks and will undergo subsequent integration testing with Super Heavy Booster 19.

Guojin Securities believes that after the land grab in low Earth orbit represented by SpaceX’s Starlink, the global commercial space industry is expected to begin moving toward even lower orbits. The ultra-low orbit, once considered a forbidden zone for spacecraft, has become a new strategic high ground due to breakthroughs in materials science, electric propulsion technology, and edge computing.