Cui Dongshuo from China Passenger Car Association: Expects the automobile market to return to growth in the second half of the year

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-12T14:16:41+00:00

China's automotive market is expected to face difficulty achieving sustained growth in 2026. The high base in 2025 will create significant pressure on year-over-year growth in the first half, with full-year sales potentially declining while exports continue to grow. Passenger vehicle retail sales for the first two months saw a year-over-year decline of 18.9%, while export growth reached 54.6%.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-12 14:16:41

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Caixin: The domestic auto market may struggle to sustain growth in 2026. At the market analysis meeting held on March 12, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Branch of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (referred to as “CAAM”), stated that from March to June 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the auto market exceeded 15%. The high base has created significant pressure for the auto market to achieve year-on-year growth in the first half of 2026. “It may have to wait until the second half of the year to recover growth,” Cui said.

Cui told Caixin that in 2026, domestic sales are expected to decline year-on-year, while exports are likely to increase year-on-year. The wholesale volume for the entire year is expected to remain flat compared to last year.

According to CAAM statistics, in the first two months of 2026, retail sales of passenger cars totaled 2.578 million units, down 18.9% year-on-year; exports reached 1.136 million units, up 54.6% year-on-year. Cui stated that the retail decline in March might narrow, but it will still be difficult to return to positive growth.

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