【Iran Crisis】Goldman Sachs: If Strait of Hormuz Blockade Continues Through End of March, Oil Prices Could Reach Nearly 18-Year Highs

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-12T11:17:36+00:00

Recently, oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by unmanned boats, causing oil prices to rise, with Brent crude oil breaking through $100. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for Q4 this year and Q4 2026, predicting that oil prices could break through 2008 highs, and warned that petroleum transportation through the Strait of Hormuz could face continued disruptions.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-12 11:17:36

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Oil rigs in the Persian Gulf were attacked by unmanned boats, driving oil prices higher again, with Brent crude futures once again surpassing $100 per barrel. Goldman Sachs recently raised its price forecasts for Brent crude and NYMEX crude for Q4 of this year, mainly due to the current war situation in Iran and the longer-than-expected disruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices could even break the 2008 high of $147.27 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs Raises Q4 2026 Oil Price Forecast: Brent Crude Expected to Reach $71

The firm has increased its Q4 2026 price forecasts for Brent crude and NYMEX crude from $66 and $62 per barrel to $71 and $67, respectively. It also warns that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of March, international oil prices could surpass the 2008 high, potentially exceeding $147 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs also states that its baseline assumption is that oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz will be reduced to 10% of normal levels for 21 days, much longer than the previous estimate of 10 days. After 21 days, oil transportation through the strait is expected to gradually recover.

The analysts’ basic scenario is that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will start to recover from March 21, provided that IEA member countries do not fully release their 400 million barrels of available reserves. Currently, it is estimated that oil flow will remain low at only 10% of normal levels for 21 days, then gradually recover over the next 30 days.

Goldman Sachs also incorporates larger-scale policy responses into its models, including the actual release of 254 million barrels from the global strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and a reduction of 31 million barrels of Russian oil inventories, which could reduce the impact on global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50%.

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