Yellow Phosphorus Factory Price Breaks Through 27,000 Yuan/Ton; Phosphate Chemical Sector Gains Against Market Trend, Baichuan Shares Hits Second Consecutive Daily Limit Up in 2 Days

On March 12, the phosphate chemical sector rose against the trend. As of the latest report, the constituent stock Baichuan Shares (002455.SZ) hit two consecutive daily limits in two days, Hebang Bio (603077.SH) experienced its first limit-up, and Wanrun New Energy (688275.SH), Ruifeng High-Performance Materials (300243.SZ), Hunan Youneng (301358.SZ), Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ), Jiangshan Shares (600389.SH) and others followed the upward trend.

In terms of news, Middle East geopolitical conflicts have led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the global sulfur supply chain. Spring planting needs support the market, but domestic policies to stabilize supply and prices have restrained phosphate fertilizer price increases, putting pressure on corporate profits. Export policies are awaiting clarification.

Additionally, the ex-factory price of yellow phosphorus from Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan has broken through 27,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of thermal phosphoric acid has risen to 7,271 yuan/ton; sulfur prices have increased to 4,500 yuan/ton, pushing up the cost of wet-process phosphoric acid. Tight supply, concentrated downstream demand, and smooth cost transmission have led to significant increases in phosphoric acid prices.

Industry insiders believe that phosphate chemicals are no longer the traditional fertilizer industry but are centered around phosphate ore as raw material, covering products such as phosphate fertilizer, phosphoric acid, and phosphate salts. Relying on lithium iron phosphate to enter the new energy sector, they have become a core demand for new energy. The industry is also extending into high-end fields like electronic-grade phosphoric acid and food-grade phosphates, moving toward a “new energy + agriculture + high-end chemicals” integrated development era.

Huatai Securities’ chemical analysis team states that if countries worldwide gradually increase stockpiling of phosphate resources and glyphosate, it could continue to boost the global phosphate fertilizer market (domestic phosphate fertilizer supply stabilization), while also reversing the domestic glyphosate market trend. Companies with capacity growth potential will have advantages, and investment opportunities in the phosphate industry chain remain optimistic.

(Edited by: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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