[Red Packet] Precise Identification of Inflection Points, Opportunity Points Being Brewed in Healthy Corrections

2026-3-12 Review [Taogu Ba]
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1. Market Overview**
   Early trading saw a slight dip and continued to decline, possibly due to concerns over weekend geopolitical uncertainties. After opening, trading volume shrank significantly, and the market sentiment was cautious. Defensive sectors such as chemicals, oil, agriculture, and coal, or those extending ZD logic, performed relatively strongly. Most other sectors mainly adjusted. AI hardware initially surged but failed to lift the index, then fell sharply, becoming a key factor in the decline. During the session, a wave of sharp drops in non-ferrous metals (energy metals, precious metals) led to small volume increases and more active selling, mainly in safe-haven sectors. From the perspective of the underlying assets, this decline remains healthy. The index continued to fall after breaking yesterday’s small gap, testing the 5-day moving average and Wednesday’s gap support. These two levels are close and stronger than the early gap, making their hold in the afternoon crucial. Recently, market rotation has increased, with the power grid sector showing more focus on leading stocks, while the laggards declined more sharply. Computing and lobster stocks are adjusting passively but healthily, with resilience slightly better than the overall market. In the afternoon, after support at the Shenzhen Component Index’s 5-day line, the market rebounded slightly, staying within a reasonable range above the gap, indicating a normal healthy correction after a continuous rise.

The total daily turnover across both markets was 24.419 billion yuan, with 1,458 stocks rising and 3,633 falling. Overall, the market shows a weak adjustment with low volume.

2. Major Market Trends**
   Although there was a sustained decline at the opening, the overall adjustment remained healthy, a point we repeatedly emphasized during the session—no panic. After filling yesterday’s gap, the index found effective support near the Shenzhen 5-day line. The afternoon rebound was decent, maintaining a healthy oscillation pattern, with volume returning to around 25 billion yuan. The overall structure remains positive, staying within the range from the gap to the previous high, with continued expectations for healthy consolidation and potential upward breakthroughs after sideways movement. If this cycle extends, it could set the stage for a directional choice—up or down—with some degree of persistence.

3. Market Sentiment**
   Despite the overall market performance being average today, speculative sentiment remains relatively stable, with a high tolerance for risk. The only concern is the amplified losses in stocks like Wangli Security. However, since Wangli Security is a pure speculative stock, its impact on overall sentiment is limited. More influential are stocks like Yunnan Energy Holdings and Ningbo Construction, which performed steadily today and will continue to influence market sentiment tomorrow. The overall situation is similar to yesterday: market speculation persists, but rapid rotation and multiple potential directions lead to dispersed capital and weaker thematic momentum. Today’s declining volume further reinforces this. As some themes weaken and exit the stage, capital will increasingly focus, and the last remaining themes may become the main drivers of sentiment and liquidity. This will be a key observation point moving forward. Yunnan Energy Holdings will face regulatory scrutiny tomorrow, and today’s early capital moves suggest a more independent outlook for it. The sentiment leader’s recognition will likely surpass that of traditional power stocks, and its future trend may diverge from the power sector, heavily influenced by overall market sentiment.

4. Sector Highlights**
   1. Chemicals
   Last night, para-xylene futures hit the daily limit, and the market responded accordingly at open. Although there was some pullback later, it remains one of today’s stronger sectors. This reflects a typical correction after a surge driven by unexpected positive news. Without further catalysts, continued strength depends on large-scale price hikes from major producers, which are influenced by external factors. Recently, commodity trends have been heavily affected by geopolitical tensions, with news-driven volatility and uncertainty. Overall, this sector is suitable for buying on dips, accumulating during corrections, and focusing on strong stocks that have deviated from the 5-day line after large gains. This is a rational rhythm; trying to fight the trend could lead to losses.

2. AI Hardware (Optics, Storage, etc.)
Currently, the momentum in AI hardware is led by optics. The recent strong rebound in optical modules followed the trend of US stocks, which also saw sideways consolidation. Today, after a sharp rise, the market pulled back significantly. Future gains depend on the US market’s correction expectations. Ideally, if US stocks stabilize or rebound during their correction, it would create a good entry point on the left side of the cycle. After a big rally, short-term S-shaped patterns often appear. The core sectors remain those previously identified, with new high-potential stocks at lower levels gradually gaining strength. The focus will continue to be on core themes, with a benign divergence pattern for left-side positioning. Right-side opportunities will emerge if AI hardware experiences a breakout with volume, pushing the Shenzhen index out of its range.

3. Power Sector
While the power sector’s overall trend isn’t deteriorating, recent days have seen the sector’s focus shift downward amid new highs by leading stocks. This is somewhat uncomfortable, indicating a further concentration on top stocks, with smaller players falling behind. This isn’t ideal for sector development. However, the power grid equipment index remains within a normal trend, and the expectation of repeated activity hasn’t been invalidated. The sector may continue to follow a consolidation and speculation path, reducing the likelihood of explosive growth. Market focus will shift to mid-to-high cap stocks in a volatile game, but with many such stocks, the randomness increases, making the game more challenging. Today, some previously low-gain green power sub-sectors began to show signs of fermentation, reflecting a reduced wind bias.

4. Computing Power Leasing
The computing power sector, though also adjusting with the market, remains in a relatively passive correction with healthy divergence. Domestic major players are starting to develop apps related to lobster stocks, which may generate news catalysts. As the lobster agent market explodes, further capacity gaps are expected to widen. The short- to medium-term logic remains intact, with opportunities to accumulate quality stocks during minor dips. If some stocks stand out in future thematic battles, right-side opportunities will appear. The key focus is whether this sector can be the final survivor in short-term sentiment battles. Tomorrow, watch whether leading stocks like Ningbo Construction and Kuanwei Information can rebound and drive sector recovery.

Overall, sector opportunities are mainly concentrated in the left-side trading of top core stocks, with repeated activity in leading stocks, making low buy and high sell strategies comfortable. However, sustained explosive moves are limited, so this approach suits left-side or T+ strategies. Right-side opportunities are still limited but expected to increase soon.