French Wine and Spirits Exports Navigate Trade Turbulence as Markets Shift Globally

French wine and spirits exports continue to face mounting pressure, with shipments declining for a third consecutive year in 2025. According to industry federation FEVS, the sector’s export value contracted to 14.3 billion euros ($17.03 billion), representing an 8% decline from the prior year, while export volumes fell 3% to 168 million cases. The deterioration underscores how persistent trade tensions with the United States and China are fundamentally reshaping the international wine and spirits landscape.

The export challenges have transformed France’s position within its own economic hierarchy. Once the country’s second-largest export sector, wine and spirits have slipped to third place behind aerospace and cosmetics—a significant repositioning over just three years. Since 2022, the sector has witnessed a cumulative value decline of 17%, signaling that temporary trade disputes have evolved into structural market headwinds requiring strategic adaptation.

U.S. Tariff Escalations and China Trade Duties Drive Market Contraction

The United States market, historically a cornerstone for French exports, has become increasingly volatile. Higher tariff regimes imposed last year, combined with threats of levies potentially reaching 200%, substantially weakened buyer appetite. American sales plummeted 21% to 3.0 billion euros, with volumes slipping below 30 million cases. FEVS Chairman Gabriel Picard cautioned that despite last year’s volume corrections, additional adjustments may be necessary in 2026 if market access conditions fail to improve.

The Chinese market presents an even more acute challenge. Sales to China contracted 20% to 767 million euros as anti-dumping duties severely constrained shipments, particularly within the cognac, armagnac, and broader wine-based spirits categories. This 767 million euro figure represents the current reality of Franco-Chinese trade tensions—a market that once offered substantial growth potential now facing significant headwinds.

Cognac Bears the Heaviest Burden of Geopolitical Friction

Cognac, France’s most iconic and commercially significant spirit, has suffered disproportionately. Export volumes of cognac tumbled 15%, while values contracted 24%—making the category one of the primary casualties of escalating trade friction. Picard emphasized the long-term damage, noting that while trade barriers can be erected quickly, restoring market relationships demands considerably more time and effort. “Geopolitical tensions between France and China marked the end of cognac in China. Now stopping something doesn’t take long, but rebuilding takes a long time,” he stated.

Regional Resilience and Emerging Market Opportunities Offer Counterbalance

Not all regions have contracted. Within the European market, exports held relatively stable at 4.1 billion euros, with several markets demonstrating surprising resilience. The United Kingdom, despite fiscal pressures at home, saw volumes increase 3%, illustrating that intra-European demand remains more stable than external markets.

Beyond traditional strongholds, emerging economies are opening new diversification pathways. South Africa registered a robust 22% sales jump to 182 million euros, while Southeast Asian markets including Vietnam and the Philippines, alongside Australia, all demonstrated strong momentum. These regional shifts suggest that while developed-market trade tensions persist, demographic and income growth in developing economies may partially offset losses in established markets.

Cautious Optimism for 2026 Amid Trade Deal Prospects

Looking ahead, FEVS leadership sees potential relief through new European trade agreements. Anticipated deals with India and the Mercosur bloc—where demand expansion is underway—could provide important sales channels. However, Picard cautioned that 2026 could remain challenging without substantive improvements in market access, particularly with the U.S. and Chinese situations remaining unresolved. The industry’s recovery depends heavily on geopolitical de-escalation and the successful execution of new trade frameworks.